***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 4.0 4.3 16.0 130.9 72.9 62.8 1.4 2.3 3.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 3.9 6.7 15.1 141.7 75.9 64.0 1.9 3.3 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 10.1 11.9 16.6 138.4 75.2 64.2 2.7 5.1 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 7.1 9.8 17.5 119.3 69.4 59.9 3.2 5.6 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 8.0 8.6 18.0 127.7 71.9 63.8 2.2 4.3 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 8.3 8.8 19.0 128.9 72.3 62.7 2.7 4.7 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 3.3 5.7 14.9 144.8 76.6 64.6 1.7 2.9 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 16.3 16.9 18.8 123.7 70.7 64.1 7.1 10.8 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 10.4 10.9 18.2 126.2 71.5 63.6 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 13.3 13.6 18.7 124.4 70.9 64.0 4.1 7.3 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 11.6 11.3 17.4 119.4 69.1 61.5 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 10.4 10.8 18.2 126.3 71.4 64.3 3.2 5.8 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 8.9 10.0 21.8 144.1 76.6 68.1 3.0 5.0 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 13.7 15.6 20.6 138.4 75.2 65.5 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.3 7.7 16.1 115.7 68.7 57.0 1.8 3.9 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 8.2 8.5 18.3 128.0 71.9 63.0 2.8 4.7 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 4.8 6.0 15.3 148.8 77.6 64.4 1.9 3.0 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 11.4 11.6 19.4 122.6 70.2 62.3 3.3 6.1 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 4.5 8.6 15.6 140.5 75.6 63.9 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 8.6 9.4 24.5 127.7 72.0 66.1 3.2 5.3 8.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 7.9 8.6 16.9 126.6 71.6 62.4 2.1 4.1 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 5.6 7.2 16.1 145.8 76.9 64.5 1.8 3.2 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 6.5 8.3 16.8 142.1 76.2 65.0 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 13.8 14.9 19.0 131.8 73.0 64.2 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 7.4 8.3 19.3 134.9 74.1 65.7 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 7.0 7.7 20.0 133.5 73.7 64.9 2.3 4.0 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 7.1 8.0 17.5 134.3 73.9 64.5 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.9 7.2 17.1 120.4 69.9 59.9 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 19.4 20.4 21.5 126.2 71.4 63.8 5.6 10.4 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 3.7 6.2 15.5 141.4 75.9 64.6 1.8 3.1 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------