***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 10.9 13.6 17.8 148.5 77.4 66.8 2.4 5.2 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 10.6 12.6 15.6 143.9 76.2 65.7 2.2 4.8 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 14.5 17.5 17.4 147.2 77.0 66.7 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 11.9 15.7 20.3 159.6 79.9 65.3 4.5 7.4 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 14.4 20.1 21.1 164.1 80.9 68.5 4.5 8.1 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 11.1 13.5 19.7 137.2 74.7 65.0 3.2 6.2 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 9.9 11.4 15.0 140.9 75.5 64.8 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 21.5 25.6 21.2 142.0 76.1 66.4 7.5 12.7 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 12.2 16.6 22.4 165.4 81.3 69.6 3.5 6.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 15.4 20.0 22.9 153.2 78.8 69.0 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 15.0 20.5 19.7 154.1 78.9 67.7 4.3 8.2 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 13.2 16.8 18.8 144.0 76.5 65.9 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 13.7 17.4 20.0 145.0 76.8 66.6 3.8 7.4 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 15.5 18.1 23.0 144.5 76.5 68.0 4.6 8.4 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 13.6 19.0 18.9 158.3 79.3 62.8 2.7 6.2 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 11.3 14.8 19.1 148.6 77.6 65.3 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 10.3 12.1 14.7 140.3 75.4 63.9 3.2 5.7 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 12.2 14.9 24.3 149.2 77.9 69.8 3.9 6.8 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 13.0 15.4 16.1 142.2 75.9 66.0 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 13.7 17.2 27.2 141.1 75.9 67.4 3.7 7.2 12.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 11.9 15.8 19.9 160.8 80.1 68.1 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 12.2 13.6 15.4 135.6 74.2 63.8 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 11.7 13.5 17.4 141.8 75.8 66.3 3.0 5.8 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 15.9 19.0 21.7 147.2 77.3 68.6 5.0 8.7 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 10.7 14.0 20.5 156.1 79.1 67.6 2.9 5.5 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 10.3 12.0 18.6 135.8 74.4 63.6 2.9 5.5 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 9.6 11.8 18.9 148.4 77.3 67.3 2.5 4.9 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 10.3 14.5 19.7 158.5 79.5 64.5 2.4 5.1 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 20.1 24.5 25.2 144.3 76.7 69.0 5.6 10.6 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 12.2 14.2 15.8 143.4 76.1 65.9 2.8 5.6 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------