***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 12.3 12.7 16.0 126.2 71.4 59.2 3.2 6.3 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.4 11.7 13.8 123.0 70.5 56.2 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.4 15.4 15.8 125.2 71.1 58.5 3.7 7.4 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.8 14.6 16.4 105.3 63.9 52.2 5.0 9.4 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.7 11.1 17.3 111.9 66.4 54.7 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.0 12.0 17.1 102.1 61.6 53.4 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.7 11.3 13.9 124.4 70.9 56.4 2.7 5.5 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.7 17.8 17.9 106.9 64.0 54.7 6.1 11.5 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.4 11.9 18.3 116.4 68.0 56.0 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.6 13.8 19.0 110.9 65.5 55.3 3.9 8.0 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.4 12.7 16.2 108.4 64.9 54.0 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.4 13.2 16.5 110.6 65.7 55.5 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.3 15.4 18.3 112.0 66.1 56.2 5.3 9.5 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.2 19.6 19.7 118.2 68.6 56.6 6.1 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 4.1 14.1 14.3 98.7 62.5 49.3 3.5 8.5 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.1 12.3 16.7 108.8 64.9 54.0 3.6 7.4 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.4 12.2 13.7 122.8 70.4 55.2 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.8 11.4 20.4 112.2 66.1 56.1 3.4 6.7 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.5 13.2 14.2 122.1 70.1 56.5 3.0 6.3 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 11.1 13.6 22.5 109.3 64.9 56.1 5.3 9.1 14.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.3 13.7 17.2 121.5 69.8 57.6 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.6 11.5 14.1 116.6 68.4 55.0 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.0 14.6 15.1 122.2 70.1 57.3 4.6 8.2 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.8 15.3 18.6 118.1 68.5 57.0 3.7 7.8 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.4 14.2 17.5 118.5 68.7 57.3 4.7 8.2 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.8 11.4 16.9 106.8 64.2 54.5 3.4 7.0 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.7 14.2 16.6 123.8 70.6 58.4 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.4 15.3 101.3 62.5 50.2 3.5 7.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 14.2 17.9 20.7 109.7 64.9 55.7 5.7 10.9 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 8.6 12.1 14.3 123.5 70.6 57.1 3.2 6.3 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------