***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 37.6 44.6 71.8 136.6 80.3 72.7 18.8 25.9 34.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 39.5 45.2 63.3 137.4 79.3 73.3 15.3 23.4 33.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 53.0 62.5 69.8 133.4 78.6 71.7 23.5 34.6 47.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 51.2 57.1 78.2 127.4 75.7 66.7 29.9 39.1 49.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 48.3 56.1 78.7 130.6 78.1 69.5 25.0 34.3 45.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 44.5 49.4 78.1 124.9 75.8 68.4 25.6 33.5 42.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 35.4 42.9 63.0 139.9 80.5 74.3 13.2 20.6 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 76.9 80.3 78.4 118.8 71.6 65.2 51.0 62.8 75.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 45.3 52.6 78.4 129.8 77.5 69.5 22.2 31.3 42.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 57.1 60.5 80.3 121.0 72.6 65.8 30.9 41.9 54.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 54.7 61.9 74.9 125.5 75.5 67.3 27.7 39.0 52.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 49.5 55.6 73.4 124.0 75.1 67.4 25.6 35.5 47.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 53.3 61.7 82.5 129.4 78.8 70.5 28.8 38.6 49.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 64.3 70.7 85.3 125.8 74.8 68.7 35.1 47.2 60.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 51.5 57.2 71.1 125.7 73.2 64.5 20.2 32.4 47.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 45.4 53.2 77.9 130.3 78.8 70.0 25.4 33.8 43.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 37.4 43.3 61.6 139.8 80.1 73.0 15.2 22.6 31.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 47.4 49.9 83.7 118.9 71.5 65.3 25.7 34.8 45.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 45.3 51.2 64.9 135.0 78.5 72.4 20.8 29.7 39.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 50.0 53.5 99.7 120.9 72.8 67.6 27.1 36.7 47.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 45.4 53.5 75.1 132.9 78.7 70.4 21.4 30.7 41.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 38.3 41.8 63.3 133.1 77.3 70.7 18.6 25.7 33.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 43.0 49.2 69.2 133.4 78.3 71.7 22.6 30.5 39.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 59.2 64.9 78.8 124.3 74.2 67.7 32.2 43.6 56.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 44.3 52.3 82.3 137.5 81.3 73.0 23.0 30.9 40.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 41.7 47.5 78.4 126.2 76.5 69.4 19.8 28.4 38.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 41.9 49.8 76.2 137.7 81.1 73.4 21.4 29.2 37.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 43.6 49.0 73.9 126.0 74.7 65.7 21.4 30.7 41.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 77.9 81.0 88.0 118.0 71.0 65.4 43.7 58.4 74.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 40.2 45.8 64.9 136.3 79.1 73.1 17.1 25.2 34.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------