***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 12.0 12.5 11.8 2.1 70.9 69.5 7.1 9.5 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 12.3 12.6 11.7 1.8 69.4 68.1 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 10.9 12.6 11.6 1.7 66.4 65.3 8.0 10.4 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 5.0 5.5 9.0 2.4 73.2 71.6 0.0 2.2 4.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 48 52 100 12.6 12.7 9.8 1.7 66.7 65.3 8.0 10.4 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 46 54 100 11.1 11.2 7.8 1.8 67.1 65.6 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 12.1 12.5 11.7 2.0 71.0 69.6 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 0.6 1.1 7.0 0.8 58.5 57.5 -2.0 0.1 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 10.9 12.4 10.5 1.5 64.4 63.1 8.0 10.4 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 11.0 11.7 8.2 1.0 59.6 58.5 8.1 10.4 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 10.8 12.2 9.7 1.4 63.6 62.2 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 10.3 11.3 8.1 1.1 61.2 60.0 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 11.0 12.3 9.2 1.4 64.1 62.8 8.4 10.5 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 11.5 12.2 10.0 1.0 59.5 58.7 8.4 10.9 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 13.3 13.9 11.8 2.9 77.4 76.0 7.2 9.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 11.3 12.9 9.3 1.7 66.0 64.7 8.5 10.8 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 12.0 12.2 11.4 1.8 70.3 68.8 7.4 9.5 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 10.6 11.0 7.2 0.7 56.6 55.8 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 12.3 12.4 11.6 1.7 67.9 66.7 7.6 9.9 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 5.9 5.8 4.8 0.3 53.4 52.8 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 10.9 12.6 11.4 1.6 66.0 64.7 8.1 10.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 12.6 12.5 11.4 1.6 67.4 66.0 7.8 10.2 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 12.8 12.7 11.4 1.6 65.6 64.6 8.2 10.6 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 11.3 12.1 9.8 1.0 59.3 58.4 8.3 10.8 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 12.3 12.8 10.9 2.2 71.8 70.3 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 47 53 100 12.2 12.2 7.6 1.5 66.4 64.8 8.0 10.2 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 12.6 13.0 11.5 2.2 72.0 70.5 7.8 10.0 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 13.0 13.6 10.0 2.4 73.2 71.7 7.3 9.9 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 5.8 5.8 6.4 0.5 54.6 54.0 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 12.1 12.4 11.8 1.9 69.3 68.1 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------