***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 12.5 11.9 11.2 0.0 50.2 49.2 9.9 11.8 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.8 11.8 10.9 -0.2 47.6 47.1 10.3 12.1 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 13.0 12.2 11.4 -0.1 49.2 48.2 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 4.7 4.7 8.8 0.5 55.4 53.6 2.0 4.1 6.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.5 9.9 0.2 52.4 51.0 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.6 8.2 0.5 55.1 53.1 9.3 11.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.5 10.8 -0.2 47.6 47.2 10.0 11.8 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.0 1.4 8.1 0.1 51.3 49.8 -0.6 1.3 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.3 10.6 0.1 51.5 50.2 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.2 9.1 0.1 51.0 49.8 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.9 12.5 10.1 0.3 52.9 51.4 10.2 12.1 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.8 9.2 0.2 52.7 50.9 9.5 11.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.7 9.3 0.3 52.9 51.3 10.5 12.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.5 10.4 -0.1 48.8 47.9 10.7 12.6 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 12.1 12.3 10.6 0.6 56.5 54.9 9.5 11.6 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.2 9.6 0.4 53.9 52.2 10.9 12.8 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.1 10.6 -0.2 47.1 46.8 9.6 11.3 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 9.7 12.0 8.4 0.0 50.0 48.9 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.8 11.9 11.1 -0.2 48.1 47.4 10.3 12.1 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.1 7.2 5.9 -0.2 48.2 47.1 5.5 7.4 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.3 11.3 0.0 50.4 49.2 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.0 10.8 -0.2 47.3 46.8 10.5 12.3 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.3 12.5 11.3 -0.1 49.2 48.1 10.7 12.5 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.3 10.3 -0.1 49.2 48.2 10.6 12.4 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 12.4 11.9 10.0 0.1 51.3 50.1 9.9 11.8 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.7 8.4 0.5 55.7 53.4 10.2 12.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.6 11.9 10.5 0.0 49.6 48.8 10.1 11.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 12.6 12.7 9.6 0.6 56.1 54.4 9.8 11.9 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.7 7.0 7.6 0.0 49.5 48.4 5.1 7.1 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.5 11.7 11.0 -0.1 48.3 47.7 10.1 11.9 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------