***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 14.6 13.5 11.8 -0.4 45.1 44.5 12.2 13.9 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 14.4 13.3 11.7 -0.4 45.4 45.1 12.1 13.7 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 15.1 13.7 11.9 -0.6 43.8 43.9 12.5 14.3 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.6 5.4 9.4 -0.6 43.8 43.6 3.9 6.2 8.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 12.0 13.6 10.1 -0.8 42.4 42.8 12.5 14.4 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 14.1 12.2 8.2 -0.8 42.6 43.3 11.0 13.1 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 11.6 13.0 11.7 -0.3 46.1 45.6 11.8 13.4 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -0.1 1.5 8.5 -0.9 41.5 42.7 0.5 2.5 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 11.7 13.5 10.5 -0.8 42.1 42.6 12.3 14.4 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 11.4 13.2 9.2 -0.9 41.7 42.5 12.1 14.2 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 11.8 13.3 9.8 -0.8 41.7 42.6 12.2 14.3 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 10.7 12.3 9.4 -0.9 41.4 42.6 11.2 13.4 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 11.8 13.2 8.8 -0.8 41.6 42.8 12.1 14.2 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 12.4 13.8 10.5 -0.7 43.1 44.4 12.7 14.5 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 14.6 12.9 10.2 -0.6 43.9 43.5 11.6 13.7 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 12.2 13.7 9.5 -0.8 42.1 43.0 12.5 14.6 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.3 11.6 -0.3 46.1 45.9 11.2 12.7 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 11.1 12.8 9.0 -0.8 42.4 43.2 11.7 13.7 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.6 13.4 11.8 -0.5 44.7 44.8 12.2 13.9 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.9 7.6 6.4 -0.8 42.3 43.1 6.4 8.5 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 12.0 13.6 11.3 -0.7 43.0 43.0 12.5 14.4 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.3 11.6 -0.4 45.4 45.6 12.2 13.7 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.0 13.7 11.8 -0.6 43.9 44.4 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 11.9 13.5 10.4 -0.8 42.5 43.4 12.4 14.3 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.7 13.4 10.2 -0.5 44.7 44.0 12.2 13.9 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.4 12.8 8.8 -0.6 43.4 44.4 11.5 13.6 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.7 13.5 11.2 -0.4 45.6 44.9 12.2 13.9 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 11.5 13.3 9.6 -0.7 43.2 43.3 11.9 14.1 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.0 7.8 8.1 -0.8 42.5 43.4 6.6 8.8 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 11.7 13.2 11.7 -0.4 45.1 44.9 12.0 13.6 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------