***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.9 13.9 0.7 58.4 56.3 13.4 15.1 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.1 13.6 0.6 57.9 55.8 13.9 15.4 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 13.9 16.4 14.1 0.6 57.3 55.5 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.6 8.1 11.6 0.5 55.2 53.8 5.9 7.6 9.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 13.7 16.3 12.3 0.5 55.6 54.2 14.0 15.7 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.0 10.2 0.4 53.9 52.9 13.1 14.7 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.9 13.6 0.6 57.9 55.9 13.8 15.2 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 1.9 4.1 10.7 0.5 55.4 54.2 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 13.5 16.0 12.7 0.5 55.8 54.4 13.7 15.4 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 16.3 16.1 11.5 0.5 55.5 54.2 13.9 15.5 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 13.4 16.1 12.1 0.5 55.5 54.1 13.9 15.6 17.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 15.6 15.4 11.7 0.5 55.7 54.5 13.1 14.8 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.4 11.0 0.5 55.9 54.9 14.2 15.8 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 14.0 16.5 12.7 0.5 55.7 54.3 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 15.9 15.5 12.2 0.3 53.3 52.2 13.6 15.2 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 14.0 16.6 11.7 0.5 55.7 54.3 14.3 16.1 17.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.2 13.5 0.6 58.0 55.7 13.2 14.6 15.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.8 11.2 0.6 56.0 54.6 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.1 13.8 0.6 57.8 55.7 13.9 15.4 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.7 8.4 0.6 56.1 54.9 8.6 10.2 11.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 13.6 16.2 13.5 0.6 56.4 54.8 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.1 13.5 0.6 57.6 55.4 13.9 15.4 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 14.0 16.5 14.0 0.6 57.3 55.4 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 13.9 16.3 12.7 0.6 55.9 54.5 14.1 15.8 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.9 12.3 0.6 57.1 55.3 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.9 10.9 0.6 56.9 55.7 13.7 15.3 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.2 16.3 13.2 0.7 58.4 56.3 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.3 15.6 11.7 0.4 54.1 52.9 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.7 10.3 0.6 56.2 54.8 8.4 10.1 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.0 13.7 0.6 58.0 56.0 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------