***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 12.9 13.3 12.2 0.6 59.8 57.5 11.3 12.6 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.3 12.0 0.5 58.1 56.0 11.6 12.8 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 13.5 13.6 12.3 0.4 56.7 54.9 12.0 13.2 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 5.3 5.9 9.7 0.7 60.7 58.4 3.6 5.0 6.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 13.6 13.7 10.5 0.4 56.7 54.8 11.9 13.2 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 12.3 12.5 8.6 0.5 57.1 55.0 10.7 12.0 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.1 12.0 0.5 59.0 56.8 11.4 12.5 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 2.3 2.0 8.6 0.2 52.4 51.1 0.6 1.9 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 13.5 13.5 11.1 0.3 55.4 53.6 11.8 13.1 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.3 9.5 0.2 52.9 51.5 11.7 13.0 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 13.5 13.5 10.4 0.3 55.3 53.6 11.8 13.1 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 12.8 12.7 9.6 0.3 54.0 52.5 11.0 12.4 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 13.7 13.7 9.6 0.4 55.5 53.8 11.9 13.2 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 13.9 13.7 10.9 0.2 52.7 51.7 12.3 13.5 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 12.8 13.6 11.2 0.8 62.7 60.5 11.1 12.5 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 14.0 14.1 10.0 0.4 56.9 54.9 12.2 13.6 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 12.4 12.6 11.8 0.5 58.6 56.3 10.9 12.0 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.2 12.9 9.0 0.1 51.7 50.6 11.5 12.8 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.3 12.1 0.4 57.4 55.5 11.6 12.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.4 7.9 6.4 0.0 49.8 48.9 6.5 7.9 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 13.5 13.6 11.9 0.4 56.3 54.4 11.9 13.2 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.4 11.8 0.4 57.0 55.1 11.8 12.9 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 13.7 13.7 12.1 0.4 56.5 54.7 12.1 13.3 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 13.7 13.5 10.8 0.2 52.6 51.4 12.1 13.3 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 13.0 13.4 10.8 0.6 59.8 57.5 11.5 12.7 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.4 8.9 0.5 58.4 56.2 11.5 12.8 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 13.2 13.6 11.6 0.6 60.1 57.8 11.6 12.9 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 13.1 13.7 10.2 0.7 60.6 58.3 11.3 12.8 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 8.3 7.9 8.1 0.1 50.8 49.9 6.5 7.8 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 13.0 13.2 12.1 0.5 58.3 56.2 11.5 12.7 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------