***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 2.9 3.6 15.1 115.5 68.0 56.6 1.7 2.5 3.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 4.8 6.0 12.9 109.7 66.3 53.2 1.8 3.5 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.4 10.4 15.5 118.0 68.8 58.0 2.4 5.3 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.4 11.1 17.4 123.0 70.5 58.3 4.3 6.8 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 12.1 13.1 17.6 130.7 72.8 61.8 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.8 9.6 17.2 119.1 69.0 57.9 2.6 5.1 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 3.8 4.9 12.8 111.9 67.2 53.6 1.3 2.6 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.1 18.2 16.7 112.6 66.6 56.2 8.1 12.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 12.3 12.5 17.4 125.2 71.1 61.2 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.2 14.1 16.9 115.1 67.5 57.4 4.8 8.6 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 14.3 13.7 16.7 119.8 69.2 58.0 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.9 11.8 16.4 118.2 68.7 58.2 4.2 7.1 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.2 16.2 113.9 67.2 56.7 3.6 6.3 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 12.4 12.1 18.5 114.6 67.6 60.8 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.3 8.6 15.1 115.3 68.4 54.9 1.8 4.2 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.0 10.6 16.9 119.9 69.3 58.7 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 3.9 4.8 12.0 107.3 65.4 54.2 1.6 3.0 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.2 11.2 17.9 112.0 66.2 58.3 3.9 7.1 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.0 7.7 13.4 110.4 66.4 54.6 1.8 4.1 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.7 8.1 19.1 99.3 60.9 53.2 3.8 6.2 9.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 9.8 10.1 16.8 124.0 70.7 60.5 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.7 5.3 11.9 100.7 62.8 53.5 1.6 3.4 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.2 6.6 14.9 113.0 67.0 57.0 2.0 3.9 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 14.8 14.0 17.8 117.5 68.4 60.2 4.1 7.7 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 5.7 7.9 17.5 119.4 69.1 58.7 2.5 4.5 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.7 8.5 16.7 115.1 67.4 56.2 2.8 5.1 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.2 7.1 15.9 115.1 67.7 56.3 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.9 8.1 16.1 118.8 69.3 56.6 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.6 17.7 19.4 110.1 65.4 58.2 6.5 11.5 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.8 6.3 13.6 112.0 66.9 53.3 1.7 3.4 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------