***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.5 8.1 14.2 99.3 61.9 48.4 2.3 5.2 9.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.9 7.3 11.2 91.2 58.7 45.5 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.2 9.9 14.2 99.8 61.8 48.0 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.1 10.7 18.7 118.7 69.0 51.5 4.0 6.6 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.7 9.9 18.3 117.9 68.5 51.8 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.3 10.2 19.2 119.9 69.2 56.9 2.7 5.3 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.7 11.1 91.3 58.7 45.7 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 15.2 18.0 17.6 109.9 65.5 52.3 6.9 11.8 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.7 8.8 18.6 115.8 67.6 51.5 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.1 10.6 18.9 111.6 66.0 51.6 2.4 5.7 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.1 11.1 17.3 114.3 67.3 51.9 2.7 5.8 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.5 10.6 16.2 110.3 65.8 52.5 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.7 10.8 18.3 112.7 66.6 53.6 3.3 6.4 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.2 15.0 18.1 103.2 63.2 50.0 6.1 10.5 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.9 11.6 18.3 124.5 71.2 51.6 2.5 5.4 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.9 9.0 18.1 116.1 67.9 53.5 2.6 5.0 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.2 7.6 10.1 86.2 56.4 44.3 3.6 6.3 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.5 19.0 105.1 63.5 50.5 3.3 6.3 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.9 8.2 12.1 94.8 60.0 46.9 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.8 19.7 102.5 62.7 51.3 3.7 7.6 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.0 8.6 16.8 111.2 66.3 50.8 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.9 8.1 11.1 88.5 57.2 45.5 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.7 13.6 99.4 61.7 48.5 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.9 12.9 17.6 105.1 63.7 50.1 4.5 8.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.5 7.3 16.8 106.1 64.2 49.2 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.6 7.8 16.6 108.3 65.0 53.4 2.2 4.6 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.4 7.1 15.1 101.4 62.6 48.7 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.3 8.9 18.9 124.0 70.8 53.3 1.8 4.1 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.8 17.3 19.2 104.6 63.3 51.2 6.3 11.5 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.0 7.1 12.1 93.0 59.5 46.2 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------