***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.1 5.9 10.8 77.4 50.2 40.6 3.0 5.9 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.7 6.0 10.4 85.5 55.6 43.5 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.5 6.9 10.5 76.1 50.2 41.5 3.4 6.9 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.5 10.6 13.4 83.8 54.2 43.7 4.7 9.2 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.4 7.6 13.0 83.0 53.4 43.2 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.2 9.2 16.5 91.3 55.7 46.7 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.4 5.9 10.3 86.6 55.8 42.6 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.4 14.6 16.1 96.0 58.7 47.7 6.1 11.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.0 6.6 13.1 81.0 51.9 42.5 2.9 6.2 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.1 9.1 15.3 87.2 54.5 45.1 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.5 8.8 13.5 87.9 55.7 44.3 3.5 7.2 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.6 9.8 14.6 96.9 59.5 47.2 3.4 7.0 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.6 10.8 15.8 92.2 56.9 46.2 4.3 8.6 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.8 9.5 14.5 82.3 52.9 45.1 4.5 8.7 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 4.0 10.6 12.7 83.8 55.4 43.9 3.4 8.3 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.2 9.5 14.4 88.7 55.9 45.2 4.1 7.8 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.2 7.1 10.9 93.2 59.8 45.6 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.0 6.5 15.9 86.9 54.3 45.9 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.8 10.6 83.3 54.4 43.6 2.1 4.9 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.3 8.6 19.0 92.5 56.8 47.6 3.9 7.1 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.1 6.7 11.5 77.4 50.6 41.6 3.1 6.6 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.9 8.1 12.0 95.5 60.5 46.4 3.1 5.8 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.9 7.4 11.0 79.9 52.8 43.6 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.5 7.3 13.6 82.6 53.0 44.9 3.0 6.5 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 5.0 9.5 12.7 81.4 52.2 42.1 5.2 8.9 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.6 10.2 16.3 100.8 61.2 48.3 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.2 6.9 11.8 81.1 52.0 41.3 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 4.0 9.6 13.7 85.9 55.5 44.1 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.0 10.3 16.4 86.4 53.8 45.5 4.4 9.1 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.1 6.4 10.1 80.6 52.9 41.8 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------