***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 1.8 2.6 3.6 1.2 65.1 62.6 0.1 1.4 2.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 2.3 2.5 3.5 1.4 69.0 65.5 0.0 1.1 2.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 3.8 4.8 3.4 1.3 67.7 65.1 2.2 3.5 4.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 -0.9 -0.6 1.4 1.8 71.9 69.5 -4.1 -2.6 -1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.6 68.5 66.4 -0.7 0.2 1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 0.7 0.7 -0.5 1.7 69.2 67.4 -1.1 -0.3 0.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 2.6 2.8 3.5 1.4 68.8 65.3 0.2 1.4 2.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -3.8 -3.9 -0.4 1.6 68.0 66.1 -6.9 -5.5 -4.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 1.8 2.6 1.7 1.4 66.9 64.6 0.3 1.5 2.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 2.4 2.4 0.2 1.4 66.7 64.6 0.4 1.4 2.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 2.0 2.0 0.8 1.5 67.5 65.7 0.1 1.0 1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 1.0 1.0 0.6 1.6 68.1 66.4 -1.0 0.0 0.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 1.8 1.7 0.1 1.4 66.4 64.7 0.0 0.9 1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 3.0 3.1 1.7 1.4 68.0 65.3 1.0 2.0 3.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 2.7 3.0 2.2 1.9 74.1 71.4 0.3 1.4 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 2.6 2.7 0.6 1.5 67.9 66.1 0.8 1.7 2.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 45 55 100 2.6 2.8 3.4 1.5 69.8 65.7 0.5 1.6 2.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 0.5 0.4 -0.5 1.4 65.8 63.7 -1.5 -0.5 0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 45 55 100 2.5 2.7 3.4 1.4 68.7 65.5 0.1 1.3 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 -1.8 -2.1 -2.6 1.3 64.5 62.3 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 1.4 2.1 2.8 1.3 66.6 64.3 0.1 1.1 2.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 2.1 2.4 3.4 1.5 70.3 66.1 0.1 1.1 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 1.3 2.2 3.1 1.4 68.5 65.6 0.0 1.0 2.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 2.2 2.3 1.5 1.5 68.0 65.6 0.3 1.3 2.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.6 69.5 66.9 0.1 1.1 2.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 1.8 1.8 0.2 1.4 66.8 65.2 0.0 0.9 1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 1.7 2.7 2.9 1.4 66.9 64.2 -0.1 1.3 2.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.8 72.4 69.9 -1.1 -0.1 0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 0.0 -0.3 -1.3 1.4 64.8 62.8 -2.8 -1.5 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 2.7 2.8 3.6 1.4 68.1 64.9 0.3 1.5 2.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------