***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 3.8 4.3 3.9 0.9 62.6 58.8 1.7 3.2 4.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.5 3.7 3.6 0.7 60.6 57.6 1.5 2.9 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 6.6 6.2 3.7 0.9 63.2 59.6 3.9 5.2 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -0.2 0.5 1.4 1.1 65.0 61.6 -2.4 -0.8 0.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 2.8 3.5 1.4 1.0 63.9 60.8 0.7 2.2 3.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 2.8 2.4 -0.7 1.0 64.1 61.4 -0.1 1.3 2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 1.4 3.9 3.6 0.8 61.3 58.0 1.7 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -3.3 -2.8 -0.5 0.9 61.8 60.1 -5.8 -4.0 -2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 3.8 4.4 1.9 1.0 63.8 60.5 1.8 3.2 4.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 3.7 4.1 0.3 1.0 62.7 60.4 1.9 3.2 4.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 3.5 4.0 0.9 0.9 63.1 60.4 1.7 3.0 4.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 2.1 2.8 0.6 1.0 63.6 60.9 0.2 1.6 3.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 3.0 3.7 0.2 1.1 65.1 61.5 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 4.0 4.3 1.8 0.8 61.5 58.9 2.3 3.5 4.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 3.6 4.3 2.1 1.1 66.0 62.2 1.9 3.2 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 3.9 4.6 0.6 1.0 64.1 61.1 2.0 3.4 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 3.7 3.7 3.4 0.6 58.7 56.2 1.9 3.1 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 1.7 2.1 -0.4 1.0 62.0 60.0 0.0 1.2 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 3.5 3.8 3.6 0.7 61.0 58.0 1.6 3.0 4.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -1.0 -0.7 -2.6 0.9 60.2 59.4 -3.2 -1.7 -0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 3.5 4.1 3.1 1.0 63.9 60.2 1.5 3.0 4.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 3.1 3.2 3.4 0.6 59.8 57.0 1.3 2.5 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 3.1 3.4 3.3 0.8 62.1 59.0 1.2 2.5 3.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 3.3 3.8 1.6 0.9 62.7 59.8 1.7 2.9 4.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 3.4 4.2 2.3 1.0 65.1 61.0 1.5 2.9 4.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 2.9 3.5 0.3 0.9 63.9 60.9 1.2 2.4 3.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 3.8 4.5 3.1 1.0 63.5 59.6 1.5 3.2 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 2.1 2.7 1.6 1.0 64.5 61.3 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 0.7 1.0 -1.2 0.8 60.0 58.9 -1.5 0.1 1.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.0 4.3 3.8 0.8 61.7 58.4 1.9 3.3 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------