***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.9 4.4 4.4 0.2 53.3 52.0 3.1 4.2 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.0 4.3 4.2 0.2 53.6 52.0 3.2 4.1 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 5.2 6.8 4.2 0.2 54.4 53.0 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -1.0 1.0 2.0 0.3 56.1 54.6 -0.7 0.5 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 1.5 3.3 1.8 0.2 53.3 53.1 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.5 -0.3 0.3 55.4 55.5 1.2 2.2 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.2 4.4 4.2 0.2 54.0 52.2 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -2.4 -2.5 0.0 0.3 55.3 55.2 -4.2 -2.9 -1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.6 4.2 2.3 0.1 52.6 52.4 3.0 4.0 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.8 4.4 0.7 0.2 53.5 53.7 3.0 4.1 5.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.4 3.9 1.3 0.1 52.0 53.0 2.6 3.8 4.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 2.8 2.6 1.1 0.3 54.4 54.8 1.2 2.3 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.5 0.5 0.3 54.8 54.8 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.3 4.7 2.3 0.1 52.6 52.6 3.6 4.6 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.7 2.6 0.4 57.8 55.5 3.2 4.3 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.2 4.7 1.0 0.2 53.4 54.0 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.4 4.5 4.0 0.1 52.2 51.1 3.6 4.4 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 0.6 2.0 0.1 0.3 54.2 54.2 0.8 1.8 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.0 4.3 4.1 0.2 53.5 52.2 3.2 4.1 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -2.2 -0.3 -2.0 0.5 57.2 56.1 -2.0 -0.8 0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.3 4.1 3.5 0.2 53.6 52.6 2.7 3.9 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.5 3.7 4.0 0.1 52.2 51.3 2.7 3.6 4.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.5 3.8 3.7 0.2 53.4 52.6 2.7 3.7 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.1 2.1 0.2 53.5 53.4 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.8 4.5 2.8 0.3 54.8 53.2 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.5 0.7 0.3 55.5 55.5 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.1 4.9 3.6 0.2 53.3 52.0 3.4 4.6 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 2.9 2.8 2.2 0.3 56.3 55.1 1.2 2.3 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 1.7 1.5 -0.7 0.3 54.1 54.1 -0.1 1.2 2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.3 4.7 4.3 0.2 54.1 52.3 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------