***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 3.2 3.5 4.0 1.3 72.5 69.0 1.3 2.2 3.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 2.9 3.2 3.6 1.1 70.8 67.3 1.2 2.1 2.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 5.3 5.6 3.7 1.2 72.9 69.7 3.5 4.4 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 -0.4 0.1 1.7 1.8 78.8 75.7 -2.7 -1.7 -0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 2.2 2.5 1.8 1.6 76.8 73.7 0.4 1.2 2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 1.4 1.8 -0.2 1.9 78.2 75.0 -0.3 0.4 1.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 3.1 3.4 3.6 1.2 72.0 68.2 1.4 2.3 3.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 -3.4 -3.1 -0.1 1.7 75.6 72.5 -5.9 -4.8 -3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 3.3 3.6 2.2 1.5 75.4 72.2 1.5 2.3 3.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 3.2 3.4 0.6 1.6 74.8 71.6 1.6 2.3 3.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 2.9 3.2 1.3 1.6 76.7 73.5 1.3 2.0 2.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 1.7 2.0 0.9 1.6 76.7 73.7 -0.1 0.7 1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 2.5 2.8 0.5 1.6 77.2 74.1 0.9 1.6 2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 3.6 3.7 1.8 1.2 71.1 68.2 2.1 2.8 3.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 3.4 3.8 2.7 1.9 81.4 78.2 1.7 2.4 3.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 3.6 4.0 1.0 1.7 78.0 74.8 1.8 2.6 3.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 3.3 3.4 3.4 1.0 69.7 66.1 1.7 2.4 3.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 1.0 1.1 -0.2 1.5 72.8 69.8 -0.4 0.2 0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 3.1 3.3 3.5 1.1 70.8 67.4 1.3 2.2 3.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 -1.4 -1.3 -2.3 1.5 72.4 69.2 -3.3 -2.4 -1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 2.9 3.2 3.3 1.4 74.3 71.0 1.2 2.0 2.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 2.7 2.7 3.4 1.0 69.3 65.9 1.1 1.9 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 2.7 2.9 3.2 1.1 71.2 68.0 1.0 1.8 2.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 2.9 3.1 1.8 1.4 72.8 69.9 1.4 2.1 2.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 3.1 3.5 2.7 1.6 76.5 73.3 1.2 2.1 2.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 2.5 2.8 0.5 1.5 75.9 72.7 0.8 1.6 2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 3.4 3.8 3.3 1.4 74.1 70.7 1.4 2.4 3.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.8 79.6 76.4 0.0 0.7 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 0.5 0.6 -1.0 1.4 71.8 68.8 -1.7 -0.7 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 45 55 100 3.3 3.6 3.8 1.2 71.7 68.2 1.6 2.5 3.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------