***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 10.4 11.4 10.8 1.0 60.8 59.7 7.6 9.9 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 10.9 11.5 10.7 0.8 58.5 57.6 8.2 10.4 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 11.4 11.5 10.6 0.5 55.9 55.3 8.5 10.8 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 3.0 4.5 8.7 1.6 65.5 64.5 0.1 2.4 4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 11.1 11.8 9.3 0.9 58.6 57.8 8.3 10.7 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 9.5 10.9 8.0 1.5 64.3 63.1 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 10.5 11.5 10.8 1.0 60.9 59.8 8.0 10.1 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 0.6 0.8 7.3 0.4 54.5 54.1 -1.7 0.3 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 11.1 11.4 10.0 0.6 55.7 55.2 8.4 10.7 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 11.2 11.1 8.3 0.3 53.1 52.7 8.4 10.7 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 11.0 11.5 9.1 0.7 57.3 56.6 8.2 10.6 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 10.4 11.0 8.3 0.7 57.2 56.6 7.8 10.0 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 11.2 11.8 8.8 0.8 58.7 57.7 8.7 10.8 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 11.8 11.0 9.2 -0.2 48.5 48.7 8.8 11.2 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 12.7 13.0 11.3 2.3 71.1 70.1 7.5 9.9 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 11.4 12.4 9.1 1.1 60.7 59.7 8.8 11.0 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 10.2 10.9 10.3 0.8 58.6 57.7 7.8 9.9 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 11.0 10.3 7.3 0.0 49.8 49.6 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 10.9 11.2 10.6 0.6 56.5 55.8 8.1 10.4 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 6.1 5.6 5.0 -0.1 49.0 49.0 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 11.2 11.6 10.5 0.6 56.7 56.0 8.5 10.8 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 10.9 11.3 10.3 0.5 55.5 54.9 8.3 10.5 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 11.5 11.5 10.3 0.3 53.7 53.3 8.7 11.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 11.8 11.1 9.1 0.0 50.1 50.0 8.8 11.1 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 10.5 11.7 9.8 1.2 62.6 61.4 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 10.8 11.9 7.8 1.1 61.8 60.9 8.4 10.5 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 10.8 11.9 10.4 1.1 61.9 60.7 8.2 10.4 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 47 53 100 12.4 12.6 9.9 1.8 66.8 65.9 7.5 10.1 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 6.1 5.4 6.4 -0.1 49.4 49.3 3.3 5.5 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 10.7 11.4 10.8 0.8 59.0 58.1 8.1 10.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------