***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 14.0 13.6 12.4 1.4 65.2 61.9 10.1 12.0 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 14.1 13.6 12.3 1.3 64.7 61.5 10.4 12.1 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 14.4 14.0 12.5 1.4 64.4 61.1 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 4.8 6.4 10.8 1.8 67.3 63.5 2.0 4.2 6.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.0 14.1 11.0 1.6 65.1 61.8 10.4 12.4 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 11.9 12.7 9.3 1.4 62.8 60.0 9.3 11.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 13.8 13.3 12.2 1.3 64.8 61.7 10.1 11.8 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.9 2.8 9.5 1.4 63.8 60.7 -0.7 1.2 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.8 11.5 1.5 64.1 60.9 10.3 12.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.7 10.3 1.4 63.6 60.5 10.2 12.2 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.9 10.7 1.5 63.9 61.0 10.3 12.3 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 12.2 13.1 10.4 1.4 63.3 60.5 9.4 11.5 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 13.0 13.8 9.9 1.3 62.3 59.8 10.4 12.4 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.5 14.2 11.4 1.3 63.2 60.3 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 14.0 14.2 11.2 1.9 69.0 64.6 9.7 11.8 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 13.5 14.4 10.4 1.4 63.5 60.8 10.9 12.8 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 13.3 12.8 12.0 1.3 64.5 61.4 9.7 11.3 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.7 13.4 9.6 1.4 62.8 59.9 10.0 12.0 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 14.1 13.7 12.5 1.3 64.5 61.3 10.4 12.2 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.9 7.2 1.3 63.1 60.0 5.4 7.4 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.9 12.1 1.5 64.6 61.3 10.5 12.4 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 14.5 14.0 12.2 1.3 64.9 61.7 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 14.6 14.1 12.5 1.3 64.1 61.0 10.8 12.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 14.5 13.9 11.3 1.4 63.2 60.2 10.6 12.5 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 13.8 13.7 11.0 1.6 66.8 63.1 10.1 11.9 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.7 13.5 9.6 1.2 62.5 59.8 10.1 12.0 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 14.0 13.7 11.6 1.5 65.9 62.5 10.2 12.0 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 12.9 14.4 11.1 1.8 66.9 63.2 9.9 12.2 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.6 8.6 1.3 62.5 59.8 5.1 7.1 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 14.0 13.5 12.4 1.3 64.8 61.6 10.2 12.0 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------