***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.3 12.2 0.1 51.5 51.4 12.6 14.2 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 12.3 14.0 12.0 0.0 49.9 50.0 12.6 14.0 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.9 12.3 0.2 52.5 52.0 13.0 14.6 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.4 10.7 0.6 56.9 55.5 4.5 6.6 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 12.6 15.4 10.9 0.5 55.7 54.5 13.0 14.8 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 11.1 14.5 9.3 0.7 57.5 55.7 11.5 13.6 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 12.1 13.7 11.9 0.0 49.5 49.7 12.3 13.8 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 3.7 3.3 9.4 0.4 54.7 53.3 0.9 2.8 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 12.5 15.2 11.3 0.4 54.9 53.7 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 12.4 15.1 10.1 0.4 54.8 53.5 12.6 14.6 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 12.4 15.3 10.6 0.5 55.9 54.4 12.7 14.6 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 14.7 14.4 10.3 0.4 55.0 53.6 11.8 13.8 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.3 9.9 0.5 55.1 53.8 12.7 14.7 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 12.8 15.1 11.2 0.3 53.1 52.3 13.1 14.8 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.7 15.0 11.1 0.7 58.7 56.9 12.2 14.0 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 15.9 15.8 10.4 0.6 56.3 54.9 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.9 11.7 -0.1 48.9 49.1 11.7 13.0 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.9 14.6 9.5 0.4 54.1 52.9 12.2 14.1 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 12.4 14.2 12.2 0.1 50.8 50.6 12.7 14.2 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.2 7.0 0.3 53.3 52.0 6.8 8.9 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 12.7 15.1 11.9 0.3 53.9 53.2 13.0 14.7 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 12.5 14.0 11.9 0.0 49.6 49.6 12.7 14.0 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.8 12.3 0.2 52.0 51.5 13.1 14.6 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.0 11.1 0.4 53.8 52.9 12.8 14.6 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.6 10.8 0.3 53.5 53.0 12.7 14.3 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.7 9.6 0.5 55.4 54.1 12.1 14.1 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 12.5 14.4 11.4 0.1 51.5 51.5 12.7 14.3 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.4 11.0 0.7 58.4 56.6 12.5 14.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.6 8.5 0.3 53.3 52.3 7.1 9.2 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 12.1 14.0 12.2 0.0 50.4 50.4 12.4 13.9 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------