***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.1 13.6 0.3 54.2 51.0 14.1 15.7 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 14.3 16.3 13.6 0.3 54.3 51.0 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 14.5 16.6 13.7 0.3 54.4 51.1 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.3 11.8 0.2 53.0 50.7 6.3 8.0 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 16.9 16.4 12.0 0.2 52.7 50.5 14.5 16.2 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.3 10.3 0.3 53.4 51.4 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 14.2 16.1 13.4 0.2 53.7 50.5 14.5 15.8 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.2 10.5 0.3 53.4 50.9 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 14.0 16.1 12.5 0.2 52.8 50.4 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 14.0 16.2 11.2 0.2 53.1 50.6 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 14.1 16.3 11.7 0.2 52.8 50.7 14.4 16.0 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.4 11.4 0.2 52.7 50.7 13.5 15.2 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.4 10.9 0.2 52.3 50.5 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 17.0 16.7 12.4 0.3 54.1 51.2 14.9 16.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.8 12.1 0.2 53.2 51.2 14.1 15.5 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.7 11.4 0.2 52.7 50.6 14.8 16.5 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 13.7 15.5 13.3 0.3 54.2 50.7 13.9 15.2 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 13.7 16.0 10.6 0.3 53.6 50.6 14.0 15.6 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.3 13.7 0.3 54.7 51.3 14.4 15.9 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.9 8.2 0.4 54.5 50.7 8.9 10.5 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 14.2 16.4 13.2 0.3 53.5 50.7 14.5 16.1 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.3 13.4 0.3 54.9 51.4 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.7 13.7 0.4 55.0 51.6 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 14.4 16.5 12.3 0.3 53.9 50.9 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.1 12.1 0.2 53.5 50.6 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.8 10.7 0.2 52.6 51.0 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.7 16.4 12.8 0.3 53.8 50.7 14.6 16.1 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.8 12.0 0.2 53.0 51.0 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.5 10.8 9.6 0.3 53.9 50.6 8.8 10.4 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 14.2 16.2 13.7 0.3 54.2 51.0 14.5 15.9 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------