***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.8 12.3 0.7 62.3 59.6 11.7 13.0 14.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.8 12.2 0.6 60.5 58.2 12.0 13.1 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.2 12.3 0.6 60.5 58.1 12.3 13.5 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 5.7 6.7 10.5 1.0 66.9 63.7 3.9 5.3 6.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 13.9 14.5 10.8 0.8 62.8 60.1 12.2 13.5 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.7 13.3 9.2 1.0 64.3 61.5 11.0 12.2 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.6 12.1 0.6 61.1 58.6 11.8 12.9 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 2.5 2.8 9.2 0.6 60.4 58.2 0.8 2.1 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 13.8 14.2 11.3 0.7 61.0 58.5 12.1 13.4 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 13.8 14.0 10.0 0.6 59.7 57.5 12.1 13.3 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 13.8 14.2 10.5 0.7 61.9 59.4 12.1 13.4 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.5 10.1 0.7 61.2 58.9 11.3 12.6 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.4 9.9 0.7 61.0 58.7 12.2 13.5 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.2 11.1 0.5 57.3 55.8 12.6 13.8 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 14.2 14.5 11.4 1.3 70.3 66.9 11.5 12.8 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.8 10.3 0.8 63.0 60.4 12.5 13.8 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 12.7 12.9 11.9 0.6 60.0 57.7 11.3 12.4 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.6 9.3 0.5 57.9 56.1 11.8 13.0 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.8 12.3 0.6 60.1 57.9 12.0 13.2 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.7 6.8 0.5 57.6 55.8 6.8 8.1 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.3 11.9 0.7 61.3 58.8 12.3 13.5 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.8 12.0 0.5 59.5 57.4 12.1 13.2 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.2 12.2 0.6 59.5 57.4 12.5 13.6 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.2 11.0 0.5 58.1 56.3 12.4 13.6 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 13.4 14.0 10.9 0.8 64.2 61.3 11.8 13.0 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.5 14.0 9.4 0.7 62.4 60.0 11.7 13.0 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 13.6 14.1 11.5 0.7 62.8 60.0 12.0 13.2 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.5 14.6 11.0 1.1 67.7 64.5 11.6 13.1 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 8.5 8.6 8.3 0.5 57.4 55.7 6.7 8.0 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.7 12.3 0.6 60.9 58.5 11.9 13.0 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------