***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 9.1 13.9 24.9 208.7 88.3 81.1 2.6 4.5 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 8.0 10.4 18.5 156.9 79.2 68.9 1.9 3.7 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 12.9 19.1 22.4 179.7 83.9 74.7 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 13.7 19.9 28.1 199.1 86.6 81.4 3.3 6.1 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 11.7 19.0 27.2 195.2 86.9 80.7 2.2 4.7 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 10.9 17.2 24.3 190.8 86.3 80.6 2.2 4.6 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 6.6 9.2 19.0 170.0 81.7 73.1 1.9 3.5 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 19.8 32.2 27.9 201.2 88.8 82.8 4.7 8.9 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 10.9 17.0 25.8 187.9 86.4 78.4 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 13.2 21.7 27.7 190.6 86.9 79.8 2.3 5.2 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 14.2 23.9 26.2 208.1 88.7 83.2 2.5 5.4 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 10.1 17.0 25.5 215.7 90.1 84.7 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 15.0 24.9 27.9 221.6 90.4 86.3 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 15.0 18.8 23.7 148.9 78.0 67.4 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 11.1 17.3 25.4 203.8 86.7 80.3 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 12.8 19.7 26.6 215.3 89.4 84.9 3.3 5.9 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 6.3 7.5 16.6 144.7 76.5 66.7 1.6 3.1 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 12.0 17.7 27.3 170.2 83.7 74.7 2.6 5.4 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 8.8 11.0 19.0 152.8 78.4 67.3 2.5 4.6 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 8.0 11.4 31.2 169.3 83.7 76.1 2.3 4.1 6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 10.8 18.0 25.0 194.1 86.7 78.6 1.9 4.2 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 5.7 6.4 16.8 131.2 73.0 63.7 1.5 2.9 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 8.8 11.5 20.2 150.6 77.9 66.8 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 14.0 19.5 24.3 163.7 81.5 72.2 2.9 6.1 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 10.3 17.0 28.8 204.9 87.9 81.1 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 1 99 100 8.6 15.9 29.8 234.9 91.6 88.3 1.5 3.1 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 10.3 17.3 26.7 204.0 87.9 80.6 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 11.4 17.2 26.1 200.0 86.6 81.0 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 16.2 23.0 27.3 162.9 82.2 72.8 3.6 7.5 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 7.9 11.1 20.2 172.2 82.3 72.7 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------