***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 4.0 3.6 10.0 76.3 53.0 44.0 2.1 3.3 4.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.2 10.4 87.6 57.3 48.1 2.1 4.1 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.1 11.2 84.0 55.6 47.3 3.1 6.0 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.7 7.6 13.0 76.8 52.7 45.3 4.6 7.1 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.5 13.9 85.6 56.0 48.6 4.1 7.2 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.4 8.4 17.8 103.0 62.6 52.2 3.3 5.9 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.4 5.0 10.6 87.6 56.9 46.9 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.0 17.0 16.1 98.5 61.1 51.0 8.6 13.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.6 14.4 91.9 59.1 51.1 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.5 12.2 16.0 96.5 60.5 51.9 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.4 13.6 91.1 58.8 50.1 3.9 7.1 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.8 10.5 14.1 97.9 61.4 50.4 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.6 9.9 16.3 103.8 63.3 52.9 4.3 7.0 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 8.7 9.1 15.5 95.4 60.0 51.9 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.0 11.9 71.8 50.2 41.5 1.6 4.0 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.7 8.0 14.6 94.9 60.0 50.8 3.7 6.2 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.0 9.9 87.5 57.4 46.8 1.5 3.1 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.1 10.1 17.8 99.0 61.4 53.0 4.0 7.2 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.8 10.7 87.9 57.6 48.8 2.1 4.4 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.8 20.4 97.6 60.4 51.7 4.5 7.5 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.3 12.4 87.8 57.5 48.7 3.5 5.9 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.4 9.9 84.5 56.0 46.6 1.7 3.5 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.0 5.1 11.7 90.4 58.7 50.6 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.6 15.5 95.1 59.9 51.4 4.9 8.7 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.0 13.1 80.4 54.5 47.4 2.5 4.4 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.5 15.4 103.7 63.5 50.3 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.1 12.1 80.5 54.4 46.6 2.6 4.5 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.2 4.4 12.8 76.8 52.7 44.2 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.6 17.3 18.7 99.3 61.6 53.0 6.9 12.4 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.4 10.5 84.8 56.3 47.6 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------