***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 13.0 16.1 15.6 147.6 77.1 63.6 3.4 6.7 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 10.6 11.9 13.9 130.2 72.9 60.7 3.0 5.7 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 14.5 17.8 15.8 143.4 76.2 63.1 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.6 12.1 16.1 120.6 69.6 56.8 3.3 6.4 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.1 12.3 16.8 124.9 71.0 57.4 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.9 12.3 19.9 119.0 68.7 55.4 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.1 11.2 13.8 126.8 71.9 58.9 2.9 5.5 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 15.9 20.5 18.6 119.3 68.9 54.8 7.7 12.5 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.0 12.8 17.5 130.4 72.7 58.9 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.7 14.6 19.0 125.2 71.0 57.1 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.6 13.3 16.3 123.1 70.4 55.6 2.6 5.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.4 12.6 15.9 116.9 68.1 53.6 3.6 6.9 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.5 13.0 17.9 117.4 68.2 54.5 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 22.1 25.3 20.6 139.5 75.4 62.3 6.7 12.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.1 11.3 14.5 114.5 68.1 55.0 2.5 5.7 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.4 12.1 16.7 121.5 69.8 55.1 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.8 15.7 13.5 130.5 73.0 58.7 3.7 7.3 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.9 13.6 21.6 129.4 72.6 59.3 3.8 6.9 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 14.0 16.5 14.6 136.2 74.4 62.2 3.3 6.8 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 15.1 16.2 25.1 130.0 72.8 58.5 3.8 7.6 13.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 12.1 14.2 16.4 140.4 75.3 62.4 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 13.5 16.0 14.2 139.7 75.2 61.1 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 14.8 18.2 16.0 142.2 75.9 63.4 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 17.2 19.8 19.5 135.9 74.4 60.9 4.8 9.1 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 12.0 13.7 17.9 136.6 74.5 62.3 3.2 6.1 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.2 9.2 16.7 110.8 65.5 52.6 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 10.7 13.1 17.4 141.9 75.8 62.5 2.8 5.6 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.6 9.4 15.4 116.4 68.4 54.7 2.1 4.6 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 21.7 23.9 23.1 132.9 73.7 59.9 7.2 12.5 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.9 11.7 14.4 134.6 74.0 61.5 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------