***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.9 9.5 81.5 55.3 46.0 2.5 5.0 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.0 8.8 75.1 52.9 45.3 2.5 4.6 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.0 9.6 83.3 56.0 46.0 3.0 5.8 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.1 10.3 11.3 82.2 56.2 46.0 4.7 8.6 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.7 11.5 87.6 57.8 46.5 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.7 8.1 15.9 100.0 61.2 49.8 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.5 3.5 8.9 74.0 52.1 45.5 1.5 3.3 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.7 13.8 13.9 100.2 61.4 49.6 5.3 9.6 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.9 6.8 11.4 88.0 57.7 45.9 2.7 5.3 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.6 13.4 95.0 59.7 48.2 2.9 6.1 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.9 11.5 95.3 60.4 47.9 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.0 9.0 11.9 101.2 62.5 49.6 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.0 10.2 13.6 103.8 63.2 51.0 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.3 7.1 12.6 83.6 55.2 46.6 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.7 8.1 10.1 74.4 53.0 43.3 3.0 7.0 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.7 8.6 12.0 96.8 60.8 48.6 3.4 6.1 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.5 3.5 8.3 71.1 51.5 43.9 1.7 3.3 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.5 6.1 14.8 94.4 59.3 49.0 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.2 8.9 77.0 53.4 45.2 1.7 3.8 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.5 18.1 100.7 61.8 51.3 3.3 6.0 9.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.9 6.9 10.2 87.1 57.9 46.1 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.7 4.9 8.5 71.3 51.4 43.6 2.6 4.6 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.8 5.7 9.7 80.6 54.1 45.5 2.7 5.0 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.9 6.7 12.5 88.3 57.4 47.5 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.1 11.8 87.3 58.0 48.0 4.3 7.3 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.5 8.8 13.5 105.1 64.2 51.7 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.0 6.5 11.2 84.3 56.3 47.4 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.7 8.0 11.0 81.1 55.6 44.7 3.5 6.6 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.2 10.7 15.9 95.9 59.9 49.6 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.2 9.0 77.4 53.5 45.6 2.2 4.6 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------