***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 35.7 38.5 60.1 127.0 73.7 66.7 18.6 25.6 33.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 27.3 32.7 51.6 112.1 65.3 59.6 15.9 23.8 33.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 47.9 51.2 59.0 122.0 71.2 64.4 23.5 34.1 46.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 49.1 50.0 68.4 117.8 69.0 62.9 29.8 38.3 47.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 45.8 48.1 69.4 122.2 71.9 65.4 25.2 33.9 43.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 43.1 47.8 77.9 124.4 75.4 65.8 25.3 33.0 41.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 23.4 29.4 52.2 113.3 66.0 60.2 13.0 20.3 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 76.4 81.6 76.5 128.2 77.2 68.7 48.5 59.4 71.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 43.4 46.4 69.2 123.9 72.9 66.0 22.6 31.2 41.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 56.0 60.8 76.1 126.0 75.4 67.7 30.2 40.5 52.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 53.2 58.8 67.5 127.9 75.5 67.9 26.4 36.9 49.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 49.3 55.5 67.3 130.8 77.4 69.0 24.6 34.2 45.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 50.5 60.7 75.6 133.7 80.4 71.4 28.5 37.5 47.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 59.8 59.4 72.5 116.7 68.8 61.9 34.1 44.9 57.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 39.0 45.6 61.9 112.0 65.3 58.7 20.0 32.0 46.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 44.0 49.8 70.0 129.6 76.9 68.7 25.9 33.6 42.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 25.9 29.3 48.3 107.8 62.7 57.2 14.6 22.2 31.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 46.2 48.7 81.4 122.7 73.5 66.2 25.0 33.6 43.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 32.8 38.9 53.2 113.4 66.1 60.2 20.1 28.7 38.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 45.8 50.0 94.8 123.8 74.7 67.0 25.3 33.9 43.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 42.4 46.8 64.1 127.1 73.7 66.8 21.4 30.1 40.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 28.7 31.0 49.4 106.0 61.5 56.5 17.3 24.8 33.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 40.1 39.5 57.6 116.1 67.8 61.4 22.6 30.1 38.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 57.0 58.3 71.8 120.4 71.2 64.2 31.5 41.9 53.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 40.6 43.8 71.6 125.7 73.6 67.0 22.8 30.4 38.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 41.0 51.8 75.4 136.0 81.2 72.6 19.6 28.0 38.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 39.4 42.2 67.4 125.7 73.6 66.9 20.6 28.2 37.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 34.2 41.0 65.3 115.4 67.6 60.8 20.8 29.6 39.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 75.6 79.2 85.0 122.2 73.1 65.7 41.7 55.4 70.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 28.0 35.0 54.1 116.5 67.9 61.8 16.8 24.4 33.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------