***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 96 4 100 0.5 0.1 1.2 -0.2 47.7 47.8 -1.3 0.3 1.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 94 6 100 0.6 0.5 1.3 0.1 51.3 51.2 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 97 3 100 2.6 2.7 1.7 0.2 52.2 52.2 0.9 2.5 4.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 97 3 100 -3.9 -3.8 -1.0 0.2 52.5 52.5 -5.6 -4.0 -2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 95 5 100 -0.5 -0.4 0.2 0.3 53.3 53.2 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 96 4 100 -1.4 -1.0 -2.0 0.6 56.3 56.2 -2.8 -1.5 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 95 5 100 0.7 0.5 1.1 -0.1 49.3 49.3 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 93 7 100 -6.4 -5.6 -1.6 0.9 60.0 59.6 -8.3 -6.6 -5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 95 5 100 0.7 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 49.2 49.2 -0.8 0.6 1.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 94 6 100 0.7 1.0 -1.2 0.5 55.7 55.4 -0.8 0.5 1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 96 4 100 0.3 0.4 -0.3 0.2 52.4 52.3 -1.1 0.2 1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 95 5 100 -1.0 -0.5 -0.8 0.7 57.8 57.5 -2.3 -1.1 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 94 6 100 -0.1 0.0 -1.0 0.3 53.0 52.9 -1.4 -0.2 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 95 5 100 1.1 1.5 0.2 0.6 56.1 55.9 -0.4 1.0 2.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 97 3 100 0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.2 47.9 47.9 -0.5 0.7 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 96 4 100 0.8 1.1 -0.6 0.5 55.1 55.0 -0.5 0.7 1.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.0 50.3 50.3 -0.6 0.8 2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 92 8 100 -1.2 -0.6 -1.2 1.0 60.3 60.0 -2.7 -1.4 -0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 0.6 0.7 1.4 0.2 52.2 52.1 -1.2 0.5 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 48 52 100 -2.7 -2.8 -2.2 1.3 65.1 64.4 -5.5 -4.1 -2.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 95 5 100 0.3 0.1 1.0 -0.1 49.0 49.0 -1.2 0.1 1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 93 7 100 0.5 0.4 1.3 0.0 50.5 50.5 -1.2 0.3 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 95 5 100 0.2 0.3 1.3 0.3 53.2 53.1 -1.5 0.1 1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 94 6 100 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.5 55.0 54.9 -1.1 0.3 1.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 96 4 100 0.3 0.0 0.7 -0.1 48.7 48.7 -1.3 0.2 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 0.1 0.6 -1.1 0.8 59.3 59.0 -1.4 -0.1 1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 97 3 100 0.5 0.1 0.9 -0.3 47.0 47.1 -1.3 0.4 2.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 96 4 100 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 0.2 51.9 51.9 -2.1 -0.9 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 -2.2 -1.4 -2.0 1.1 61.6 61.2 -4.2 -2.5 -0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 95 5 100 0.8 0.8 1.4 0.1 50.8 50.7 -0.9 0.7 2.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------