***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.0 4.0 4.0 0.5 56.5 55.4 2.0 3.5 4.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 3.6 3.7 3.8 0.6 57.7 56.3 1.8 3.1 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.0 4.0 0.5 57.2 55.7 4.2 5.5 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.7 60.1 57.2 -1.9 -0.5 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 3.2 3.0 1.5 0.4 56.1 54.6 0.9 2.5 4.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 2.0 2.0 -0.6 0.5 56.0 54.9 0.1 1.5 2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.8 3.8 0.6 57.8 56.5 2.0 3.2 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -5.7 -3.4 -0.6 0.3 53.9 53.3 -5.4 -3.8 -2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 4.0 3.8 1.8 0.4 55.4 54.2 2.0 3.4 4.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 1.9 3.7 0.1 0.3 54.1 53.3 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 3.8 3.5 0.8 0.3 54.3 53.5 1.9 3.2 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 2.4 2.1 0.2 0.3 53.9 53.4 0.4 1.8 3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 3.3 3.0 -0.3 0.3 53.5 53.0 1.3 2.7 4.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.1 1.8 0.5 56.3 55.2 2.5 3.7 4.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 3.8 4.2 2.6 0.8 62.1 58.5 2.1 3.3 4.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 4.3 4.1 0.3 0.3 54.4 53.5 2.3 3.7 5.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.8 3.8 0.6 58.7 57.0 2.3 3.3 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 -0.1 1.5 -0.6 0.3 53.3 52.9 0.1 1.3 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.7 3.8 0.5 57.6 56.0 1.9 3.2 4.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -3.3 -1.5 -2.5 0.0 50.2 50.5 -3.0 -1.5 -0.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.7 3.2 0.5 56.3 54.9 1.8 3.2 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 3.2 3.3 3.6 0.6 58.5 56.6 1.6 2.8 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 3.3 3.3 3.6 0.5 57.3 55.6 1.5 2.8 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 3.6 3.5 1.5 0.5 56.3 55.0 1.9 3.1 4.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 3.8 3.9 2.7 0.6 57.3 55.8 1.7 3.2 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 3.1 2.8 -0.4 0.2 52.6 52.6 1.3 2.6 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.2 3.5 0.5 56.6 55.5 1.9 3.6 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 2.4 2.7 1.7 0.8 61.1 58.0 0.5 1.9 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -1.5 0.5 -1.1 0.2 52.5 52.4 -1.2 0.3 1.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.1 4.2 3.9 0.5 57.4 56.2 2.3 3.6 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------