***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 2.8 2.8 3.4 0.4 57.2 55.2 1.6 2.5 3.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 2.6 2.7 3.2 0.4 58.7 56.2 1.5 2.3 3.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 4.9 5.1 3.6 0.5 59.6 57.0 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -1.2 -0.8 1.0 0.6 62.0 59.0 -2.5 -1.5 -0.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 1.7 1.9 1.5 0.5 60.2 57.4 0.7 1.4 2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 0.8 1.1 -0.7 0.7 62.4 59.8 -0.1 0.6 1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 2.8 2.9 3.2 0.4 58.0 55.7 1.7 2.5 3.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -4.3 -3.8 -0.6 0.7 62.2 59.4 -5.6 -4.6 -3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 2.8 2.9 1.5 0.4 58.2 56.0 1.8 2.5 3.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 2.7 2.9 0.1 0.6 60.6 57.9 1.8 2.5 3.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 2.4 2.6 0.9 0.5 59.4 57.1 1.5 2.2 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.6 61.8 59.2 0.1 0.9 1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 2.0 2.1 0.0 0.5 59.3 57.3 1.1 1.8 2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.4 1.6 0.6 61.8 58.8 2.3 3.0 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 2.8 3.0 2.1 0.6 61.5 59.1 1.9 2.6 3.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 3.0 3.3 0.5 0.6 61.1 58.7 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 2.9 3.0 3.1 0.4 58.5 55.8 1.9 2.7 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 0.6 0.9 -0.4 0.7 62.4 59.1 -0.2 0.4 1.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 2.7 2.8 3.2 0.5 59.1 56.4 1.6 2.4 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -1.9 -1.7 -2.0 0.6 61.9 58.2 -3.0 -2.2 -1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 2.5 2.6 2.8 0.4 58.5 56.1 1.5 2.2 2.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 2.3 2.4 3.0 0.4 58.7 56.0 1.3 2.0 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 2.3 2.4 3.1 0.5 59.5 56.9 1.2 2.0 2.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 2.5 2.7 1.4 0.6 61.4 58.5 1.6 2.3 2.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 2.6 2.7 2.4 0.5 58.4 56.1 1.5 2.3 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 2.0 2.3 -0.3 0.6 61.7 59.2 1.0 1.8 2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 2.9 3.0 3.0 0.4 57.2 55.1 1.7 2.6 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 1.1 1.4 1.3 0.7 62.9 59.9 0.2 0.9 1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -0.2 0.2 -1.1 0.7 62.0 58.7 -1.5 -0.5 0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.0 3.1 3.3 0.4 58.5 56.1 1.9 2.7 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------