***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 10.7 11.5 11.3 1.1 61.1 60.5 8.0 10.2 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 11.1 12.0 11.5 1.1 61.4 60.8 8.5 10.6 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 13.3 12.9 12.1 1.6 65.6 64.7 8.8 10.9 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 3.2 4.3 8.2 1.4 62.6 61.9 0.3 2.6 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 13.4 13.1 10.5 1.9 67.6 66.5 8.7 10.9 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 11.6 11.5 8.7 2.1 69.1 67.9 7.3 9.2 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 10.8 11.3 11.0 0.8 58.5 58.1 8.2 10.3 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 3.2 3.1 9.2 2.5 72.6 71.2 -1.5 0.5 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 13.7 13.3 11.7 2.0 68.9 67.7 8.7 10.9 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 13.8 13.6 10.2 2.4 71.2 69.9 8.7 10.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 13.6 13.5 11.3 2.3 70.9 69.5 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 12.9 12.8 9.9 2.3 71.3 70.1 8.1 10.2 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 13.2 13.2 10.6 2.1 69.6 68.5 9.0 10.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 14.2 13.9 11.9 2.1 69.3 68.3 9.1 11.3 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 10.6 11.4 10.4 1.2 60.4 60.0 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 13.6 13.5 10.3 2.1 69.0 68.0 9.1 11.1 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 10.6 11.1 10.8 0.8 58.7 58.4 8.0 10.1 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 13.5 13.4 9.5 2.3 71.3 70.0 8.3 10.6 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 12.8 12.3 11.8 1.3 63.5 62.9 8.4 10.6 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 8.7 8.9 7.5 2.5 74.2 72.9 4.0 6.0 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 13.5 13.0 12.1 1.7 66.2 65.2 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 11.4 12.2 11.4 1.0 61.4 60.9 8.6 10.8 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 13.7 13.2 12.2 1.7 66.2 65.3 9.0 11.2 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 14.1 13.9 11.6 2.2 69.9 68.7 9.1 11.3 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 10.7 11.4 10.1 1.0 59.5 59.1 8.1 10.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 12.7 12.7 8.7 1.9 68.6 67.6 8.7 10.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 11.0 11.6 10.6 0.8 58.6 58.2 8.5 10.5 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 12.7 12.3 9.5 1.6 64.4 63.6 7.7 10.2 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 8.7 8.7 9.0 2.5 73.0 71.7 3.6 5.7 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 11.0 11.8 11.5 1.2 61.9 61.3 8.4 10.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------