***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.2 12.2 0.8 59.0 54.6 10.3 12.2 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.0 12.0 0.6 56.3 52.6 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.4 12.4 0.6 56.6 53.0 10.7 12.7 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.8 9.5 1.0 60.0 55.9 2.1 4.4 6.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.4 10.7 0.7 56.5 53.7 10.5 12.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 8.5 12.2 8.7 0.6 55.8 53.0 9.3 11.5 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.6 11.8 0.5 55.9 52.4 10.2 12.0 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -1.3 1.7 8.9 0.4 53.6 51.8 -0.7 1.3 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 13.4 13.1 11.4 0.6 55.6 53.0 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.8 12.9 9.8 0.5 54.3 52.2 10.2 12.4 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 9.9 13.1 10.8 0.5 54.6 52.5 10.4 12.5 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 8.8 12.1 9.7 0.3 53.0 51.4 9.5 11.7 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 9.6 13.0 9.8 0.3 52.5 51.0 10.5 12.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 10.6 13.3 11.1 0.2 52.4 50.3 11.0 13.0 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.6 11.2 1.1 60.8 56.8 9.9 12.2 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 10.2 13.6 10.1 0.5 54.5 52.4 10.9 13.1 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.0 11.6 0.5 55.7 52.3 9.7 11.5 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 9.6 12.6 9.2 0.4 53.7 51.7 10.1 12.2 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.0 12.1 0.5 56.0 52.4 10.5 12.4 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.8 7.9 6.8 0.3 53.1 51.3 5.3 7.5 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.4 12.2 0.7 56.8 53.5 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.1 11.8 0.5 55.3 52.0 10.7 12.6 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.4 12.2 0.5 54.9 51.8 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.3 13.1 11.1 0.4 53.4 51.2 10.7 12.7 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.9 13.2 11.0 0.9 59.1 54.9 10.2 12.1 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 9.2 12.6 8.8 0.3 53.0 51.5 10.0 12.2 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.2 11.6 0.8 58.3 54.2 10.4 12.2 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.8 10.2 1.0 59.8 55.9 10.1 12.5 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.6 7.6 8.4 0.3 53.0 51.2 5.1 7.2 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.9 12.1 0.6 56.7 52.9 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------