***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.8 14.0 0.6 56.4 54.6 14.8 16.3 17.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.9 13.8 0.4 54.9 53.7 15.2 16.5 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.1 14.4 0.5 55.8 54.2 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.2 9.1 11.9 0.7 56.9 54.5 6.7 8.4 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 14.8 17.3 12.8 0.7 56.8 54.7 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.0 10.9 0.8 57.5 55.0 13.7 15.3 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.7 13.8 0.5 55.4 54.1 15.1 16.3 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 2.5 4.8 11.4 0.8 57.3 54.8 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 17.0 16.9 13.2 0.7 56.8 54.8 14.8 16.3 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 14.4 17.0 12.2 0.8 57.4 55.1 14.7 16.3 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 14.5 17.1 12.7 0.7 57.1 54.9 14.8 16.4 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 13.5 16.2 12.4 0.7 56.9 54.6 13.8 15.5 17.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.2 11.6 0.7 57.4 55.2 14.9 16.5 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 15.0 17.2 13.0 0.5 54.6 53.6 15.3 16.8 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.4 12.6 0.6 56.7 54.2 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 14.8 17.5 12.2 0.7 57.1 55.0 15.2 16.8 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.0 13.5 0.4 54.7 53.5 14.6 15.7 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 14.2 16.8 11.8 0.8 57.8 55.6 14.5 16.1 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.8 14.0 0.4 54.9 53.7 15.1 16.4 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 9.0 11.5 9.1 0.9 58.6 55.8 9.2 10.8 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.1 13.8 0.6 56.5 54.6 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.8 13.6 0.3 53.7 52.7 15.2 16.5 17.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.2 14.2 0.5 55.1 53.8 15.3 16.8 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 14.9 17.1 13.1 0.7 56.2 54.6 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.7 12.5 0.6 56.8 54.7 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.4 11.3 0.7 57.2 54.8 14.2 15.8 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.1 13.4 0.6 56.8 54.9 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.5 12.2 0.7 56.8 54.4 14.2 15.9 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.9 11.6 10.9 0.9 58.1 55.7 9.2 10.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.8 13.9 0.5 55.2 53.9 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------