***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 13.6 14.3 12.9 1.0 65.7 60.7 12.1 13.3 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 13.8 14.3 12.7 0.9 63.8 59.4 12.4 13.4 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 14.2 14.9 13.3 1.1 66.2 61.0 12.7 13.8 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 6.1 7.0 10.3 1.1 66.5 61.7 4.2 5.6 6.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 14.2 15.0 11.6 1.1 66.6 61.3 12.6 13.8 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.7 9.6 1.1 66.4 60.6 11.3 12.5 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.9 12.6 0.8 62.5 58.4 12.1 13.2 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 2.7 3.5 10.1 1.2 66.8 61.1 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 14.1 14.9 12.3 1.1 67.0 61.4 12.5 13.7 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.9 11.0 1.2 67.1 61.3 12.4 13.6 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.9 11.7 1.2 66.6 61.1 12.4 13.7 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.4 14.1 10.9 1.1 65.6 60.2 11.6 12.9 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.9 10.7 1.0 64.7 59.5 12.5 13.8 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.4 15.0 12.2 1.0 65.2 59.9 12.9 14.0 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 13.6 14.3 11.7 1.1 65.9 61.7 11.8 13.1 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.6 15.3 11.0 1.1 65.5 60.3 12.8 14.1 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.3 12.3 0.7 62.2 58.2 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.5 10.5 1.2 67.0 61.3 12.1 13.3 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.4 13.0 0.9 64.6 59.9 12.4 13.4 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.8 9.7 8.0 1.2 67.6 61.7 7.1 8.4 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.9 12.9 1.1 66.7 61.2 12.6 13.8 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.3 12.6 0.8 62.8 58.6 12.5 13.5 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.9 13.2 1.0 65.4 60.3 12.8 13.9 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 14.3 15.0 12.2 1.1 66.3 60.8 12.7 13.9 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.7 14.3 11.5 1.0 65.3 60.5 12.2 13.3 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.7 14.3 9.8 0.9 64.2 59.1 12.0 13.3 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.5 12.2 0.9 64.5 59.8 12.4 13.5 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.8 14.7 10.9 1.2 66.8 61.9 11.9 13.3 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 8.8 9.6 9.7 1.2 67.2 61.4 7.0 8.3 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 13.6 14.2 12.8 0.9 64.3 59.7 12.2 13.3 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------