***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 6.3 7.2 16.3 142.8 76.1 67.6 2.2 3.6 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 6.4 8.2 14.8 151.4 78.0 70.8 1.5 3.1 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 10.3 11.7 15.1 133.9 73.6 65.5 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.0 11.1 17.1 119.1 69.0 56.4 3.8 6.5 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 6.0 8.0 15.7 112.5 66.6 56.2 2.1 4.4 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.2 11.8 86.1 54.7 46.1 2.0 4.4 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 5.6 7.1 14.6 153.9 78.6 70.8 1.7 3.1 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 11.5 9.7 12.5 80.1 51.5 46.3 5.4 9.3 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 6.4 9.4 15.8 119.0 69.0 58.1 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 7.1 7.4 14.6 94.9 58.2 50.8 2.6 5.4 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 7.7 8.1 13.2 93.4 58.9 50.4 2.7 5.7 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.2 11.4 85.7 54.9 48.3 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 7.5 6.9 12.5 85.1 54.3 47.3 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 7.9 13.8 18.3 126.4 71.6 63.9 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.6 8.8 12.9 109.0 66.5 52.3 2.6 5.1 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.4 13.3 98.3 60.7 51.6 2.7 5.2 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 5.4 7.0 14.8 157.1 79.3 71.0 1.8 3.1 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 6.8 7.6 15.5 100.2 60.5 53.2 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 8.0 9.6 15.0 147.8 77.2 70.5 2.3 4.3 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.3 3.7 12.8 72.4 46.7 42.8 2.3 4.1 6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.0 10.0 16.2 130.9 72.8 62.5 2.3 4.5 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 5.4 7.0 15.2 153.9 78.4 71.2 1.3 2.6 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 7.9 9.4 15.4 140.9 75.6 69.1 1.8 3.7 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 7.4 11.9 16.7 121.0 69.5 60.3 2.8 5.9 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 8.1 8.9 17.9 132.2 73.2 65.0 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.4 3.3 10.5 79.0 51.0 44.2 1.5 3.2 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 8.6 9.9 17.2 142.2 75.9 68.2 2.7 4.7 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.6 8.0 14.2 106.3 64.7 52.1 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.0 9.5 14.3 89.5 55.7 49.9 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 6.3 7.7 14.8 148.6 77.4 70.3 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------