***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.8 6.5 8.9 67.5 46.9 40.8 3.7 7.2 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.4 5.9 7.8 68.4 48.3 41.3 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.6 7.6 8.8 68.9 48.1 40.7 4.3 8.0 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.3 9.5 13.2 89.4 58.5 45.3 4.0 7.3 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.3 9.6 12.6 89.1 57.5 44.2 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.0 9.7 14.6 93.4 59.2 46.6 3.8 7.1 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.2 5.8 7.5 67.8 48.0 41.3 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.0 15.9 12.4 84.1 55.1 43.6 8.1 13.7 21.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.4 9.2 12.4 83.8 55.0 43.3 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.8 10.1 12.7 82.0 53.8 43.2 4.7 8.8 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.9 9.8 11.9 88.3 57.5 43.6 3.4 7.4 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.8 10.5 11.6 88.2 57.2 43.7 4.8 8.6 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.3 11.3 13.5 89.4 57.4 44.5 5.1 9.1 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.7 11.8 11.2 70.2 48.1 41.4 7.1 12.6 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.9 12.5 87.2 59.3 44.3 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.0 9.7 13.2 92.3 59.1 45.0 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.3 7.5 8.5 76.4 52.6 45.0 3.3 6.8 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.1 8.7 12.4 76.6 50.7 41.9 5.2 8.6 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.0 6.5 7.9 67.2 47.3 40.7 3.6 7.2 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.0 9.4 14.4 79.1 52.7 43.3 4.8 8.7 14.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.2 8.5 10.7 78.0 53.1 42.4 4.2 7.7 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.9 8.5 9.5 80.7 54.0 46.2 4.0 7.5 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.7 6.9 8.2 65.6 46.0 40.0 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.9 9.9 10.7 71.0 48.3 40.4 5.9 10.5 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.4 8.4 11.3 75.5 51.7 43.6 4.4 8.0 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.4 8.0 12.9 89.7 58.0 46.0 3.1 6.0 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.1 6.3 9.7 69.4 47.9 41.5 3.5 6.8 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.7 7.6 13.4 92.8 60.5 45.9 2.3 5.1 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.6 14.1 12.7 75.3 49.8 41.7 8.8 14.1 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.1 5.0 7.8 66.3 47.0 40.6 2.7 5.5 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------