***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.9 13.7 94.6 61.6 52.3 2.3 4.2 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.3 7.5 12.8 102.1 64.4 53.5 2.2 4.5 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.6 8.5 13.4 97.1 62.5 51.8 2.7 5.5 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.6 14.6 91.9 60.3 49.8 4.6 8.5 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.5 13.6 93.2 60.5 50.1 2.5 5.1 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.4 7.8 14.1 87.6 56.2 45.6 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 4.2 5.2 12.9 101.9 64.0 53.7 1.5 3.1 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 5.3 11.2 13.3 87.5 56.6 46.6 4.8 9.1 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.2 14.2 96.5 61.9 51.6 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.0 8.1 14.5 92.9 59.4 49.7 3.1 5.8 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.8 12.5 91.5 59.2 48.3 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.5 7.8 11.8 86.2 56.3 45.5 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.5 8.1 13.9 88.8 57.1 45.9 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 7.2 8.6 17.3 104.5 64.8 53.0 2.4 5.1 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.1 11.4 14.4 92.6 61.5 48.7 3.4 7.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.5 7.7 12.9 89.8 58.4 47.1 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.9 6.3 13.2 108.2 66.4 54.3 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.9 15.1 92.4 59.0 49.4 2.4 4.5 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.6 6.6 13.0 100.9 64.0 53.1 2.2 4.2 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.0 8.1 16.2 87.1 56.2 46.1 3.8 6.8 10.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.9 6.7 13.4 94.5 61.5 51.3 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.3 6.8 13.7 107.9 66.2 54.1 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 6.1 6.8 13.3 99.3 63.2 51.9 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.7 14.9 96.6 61.6 50.9 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.9 14.4 90.1 59.5 51.0 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.0 7.9 14.6 91.5 58.5 45.8 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.1 14.0 91.9 60.3 51.8 2.0 4.3 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.8 9.1 13.8 90.6 59.8 48.1 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 4.8 10.5 15.1 89.2 57.6 47.9 4.2 8.2 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.7 12.8 97.8 62.8 52.4 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------