***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 27.1 30.5 55.4 108.5 63.1 59.1 17.3 24.2 32.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 35.7 33.1 50.3 112.1 65.3 60.3 16.6 24.4 33.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 38.1 43.6 54.3 108.8 63.3 58.9 23.5 33.9 46.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 43.1 45.1 62.1 105.0 60.6 55.0 30.6 39.2 48.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 38.0 40.9 59.9 106.4 61.5 55.5 25.4 34.0 43.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 37.4 36.9 59.4 101.0 57.0 52.6 25.6 33.3 42.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 31.5 28.2 49.2 111.2 64.8 60.3 12.8 20.1 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 65.7 61.8 56.8 95.5 52.3 48.6 49.0 60.2 72.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 34.8 38.3 60.7 107.5 62.3 56.1 22.7 31.1 40.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 45.4 45.2 61.3 100.8 56.7 52.0 30.8 40.7 52.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 43.1 42.7 55.5 101.2 57.5 52.0 26.9 37.4 49.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 41.0 38.7 52.0 97.9 54.5 50.1 26.4 35.9 46.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 43.3 42.1 59.0 100.2 56.3 52.0 29.5 38.5 48.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 47.9 55.3 69.3 111.6 65.3 60.1 34.1 44.5 55.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 39.2 39.0 55.1 99.5 57.6 51.3 21.0 32.6 47.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 38.0 38.5 57.5 103.1 58.8 53.5 26.4 34.1 42.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 34.7 31.9 49.7 113.5 66.2 60.7 14.5 22.2 31.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 37.3 37.1 63.3 100.6 56.5 52.6 25.3 33.6 42.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 32.6 37.7 51.4 111.4 64.9 59.8 20.3 28.7 38.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 39.4 34.9 65.7 92.8 49.6 47.7 26.3 35.2 45.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 34.0 38.5 58.1 108.8 63.2 58.1 21.9 30.4 40.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 36.4 34.4 52.7 114.4 66.8 60.5 17.3 24.9 33.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 32.6 36.9 54.2 111.1 64.7 59.7 22.4 29.5 37.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 46.0 49.7 62.4 106.4 61.3 56.7 31.9 42.1 53.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 33.2 35.9 61.9 105.6 61.1 57.3 22.6 30.1 38.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 34.0 31.3 55.5 96.9 53.5 49.9 20.5 29.2 39.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 30.6 33.8 58.3 107.5 62.4 58.6 20.0 27.5 36.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 34.5 35.2 57.7 101.8 58.6 52.5 21.5 30.1 40.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 62.6 59.9 63.3 97.7 53.9 51.1 42.8 56.5 71.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 27.6 32.0 51.0 110.7 64.4 59.8 16.4 23.9 33.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------