***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 0.7 -0.5 -0.1 -0.8 39.9 40.1 -1.1 0.5 2.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 0.7 0.0 0.2 -0.5 43.2 43.3 -0.9 0.6 1.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 3.0 2.0 0.0 -0.6 42.0 42.2 1.2 2.7 4.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -3.1 -5.2 -3.5 -1.4 34.2 35.0 -5.3 -3.7 -2.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 -0.2 -1.8 -2.6 -1.3 34.1 35.4 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 -3.6 -3.6 -5.7 -2.5 22.1 23.9 -2.7 -1.5 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 0.8 0.1 0.1 -0.6 42.6 42.8 -0.8 0.7 2.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 -9.3 -9.6 -5.6 -2.8 18.6 20.6 -7.9 -6.3 -4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 1.1 -0.8 -2.1 -1.4 32.9 34.4 -0.8 0.6 1.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 -1.4 -1.4 -4.5 -2.2 25.2 26.9 -0.8 0.5 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 -1.8 -1.8 -3.6 -1.9 24.9 27.3 -1.1 0.1 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 -3.3 -4.0 -5.0 -2.9 14.1 17.0 -2.2 -1.1 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 -2.0 -2.5 -4.9 -2.7 17.5 21.3 -1.3 -0.1 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 -0.7 -0.6 -2.5 -1.8 29.0 30.1 -0.3 1.1 2.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 0.9 0.1 -1.6 -0.7 41.1 42.2 -0.5 0.7 1.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 -1.4 -1.6 -4.3 -2.3 20.3 23.3 -0.5 0.7 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 1.1 0.4 0.2 -0.5 44.0 44.0 -0.5 0.9 2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 -3.6 -3.6 -5.8 -2.7 22.2 24.0 -2.6 -1.4 -0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 0.7 0.0 0.2 -0.5 43.9 44.0 -1.0 0.6 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 -6.0 -5.6 -6.8 -1.9 29.4 30.3 -5.3 -3.9 -2.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 40.2 40.8 -1.2 0.2 1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 93 7 100 0.5 -0.1 0.3 -0.4 44.1 44.1 -1.0 0.4 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 95 5 100 0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.4 45.1 45.2 -1.2 0.2 1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 -1.2 -1.1 -2.7 -1.7 31.8 32.9 -1.0 0.4 1.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 94 6 100 0.3 -0.4 -1.0 -0.6 42.5 42.7 -1.2 0.2 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 -2.4 -2.8 -5.3 -2.9 15.6 18.5 -1.3 -0.1 1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 94 6 100 0.7 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 41.4 41.6 -1.1 0.5 2.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 -0.4 -2.1 -3.0 -1.5 32.5 33.8 -2.1 -0.9 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -4.3 -4.1 -5.5 -1.8 31.1 32.1 -3.9 -2.3 -0.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 1.0 0.2 0.2 -0.6 42.8 43.0 -0.7 0.8 2.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------