***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 3.0 2.4 2.3 -0.3 44.2 45.3 1.9 2.7 3.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 2.9 2.4 2.4 -0.2 46.1 46.8 1.7 2.6 3.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.1 4.6 2.2 -0.2 45.0 46.0 4.1 4.9 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -0.9 -1.8 -0.4 -0.5 40.4 41.6 -2.2 -1.2 -0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 1.9 1.2 -0.2 -0.5 40.0 41.5 0.9 1.6 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 -0.1 0.0 -2.4 -1.0 31.7 35.2 0.1 0.8 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.0 2.5 2.4 -0.2 46.2 46.8 1.9 2.7 3.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -5.8 -5.8 -2.3 -1.2 27.0 30.8 -5.4 -4.4 -3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 3.0 2.2 0.3 -0.6 38.8 40.4 2.0 2.7 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 1.8 1.9 -1.6 -1.1 30.4 33.3 2.0 2.7 3.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 1.6 1.8 -0.7 -0.7 34.1 36.8 1.7 2.4 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 0.0 0.0 -1.4 -1.1 27.1 31.5 0.3 1.1 1.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 1.0 1.0 -1.7 -1.1 28.0 32.4 1.3 2.0 2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 3.4 2.7 0.4 -0.6 37.3 39.4 2.5 3.2 3.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 3.0 2.5 0.5 -0.3 43.1 43.9 2.1 2.8 3.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.0 2.1 -1.2 -0.9 31.2 34.6 2.2 3.0 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.1 2.7 2.3 -0.2 45.8 46.5 2.1 2.9 3.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 -0.3 -0.3 -2.5 -1.3 27.7 30.7 -0.1 0.6 1.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 2.9 2.4 2.3 -0.2 46.0 46.8 1.8 2.6 3.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -3.0 -3.0 -4.1 -1.2 30.0 33.0 -2.8 -2.0 -1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 2.7 2.1 1.5 -0.4 42.8 44.0 1.7 2.4 3.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 2.5 2.0 2.3 -0.2 45.1 45.9 1.5 2.2 2.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 2.5 2.0 2.0 -0.2 46.1 46.9 1.4 2.2 2.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 2.7 2.0 0.0 -0.7 37.3 39.2 1.8 2.5 3.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 2.8 2.2 0.9 -0.3 45.0 45.9 1.7 2.5 3.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 0.9 0.9 -1.7 -1.2 26.8 31.6 1.2 1.9 2.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 3.2 2.6 1.7 -0.3 44.8 45.7 2.0 2.9 3.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 1.4 0.7 -0.2 -0.6 38.3 39.8 0.4 1.1 1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 0.1 -1.2 -2.8 -1.0 32.4 34.9 -1.2 -0.3 0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 3.2 2.8 2.4 -0.2 46.0 46.7 2.1 3.0 3.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------