***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 94 6 100 10.8 10.8 10.3 0.2 52.5 52.2 8.5 10.5 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 11.2 11.7 10.7 0.6 56.5 56.0 8.9 10.9 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 11.5 11.1 10.2 -0.1 49.2 49.1 9.2 11.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 3.8 1.5 6.2 -1.2 38.9 39.5 0.7 3.0 5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 12.1 9.4 6.9 -1.6 35.4 36.2 9.1 11.2 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 90 10 0 100 5.9 5.8 3.1 -3.7 17.9 19.3 7.8 9.7 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 10.9 11.4 10.6 0.7 57.2 56.6 8.6 10.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 -2.8 -2.6 3.9 -3.4 20.5 21.9 -1.0 0.8 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.0 9.7 8.2 -1.4 37.6 38.3 9.1 11.2 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 7.7 8.1 5.4 -2.8 25.8 27.0 9.1 11.2 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 7.7 8.1 5.8 -2.7 26.9 28.1 8.9 11.0 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 6.6 6.8 4.6 -3.3 20.9 22.4 8.4 10.4 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 7.8 7.8 4.7 -3.3 19.9 21.4 9.5 11.3 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.4 9.9 8.3 -1.4 36.9 37.7 9.4 11.6 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 10.7 10.1 8.6 -0.2 48.4 48.5 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 8.4 8.5 5.3 -2.9 24.3 25.7 9.6 11.5 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 10.7 11.4 10.7 0.9 59.3 58.5 8.4 10.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 6.9 7.2 4.5 -3.1 22.8 24.0 8.7 10.9 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 93 7 100 11.1 11.4 10.6 0.4 54.5 54.1 8.8 10.9 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 93 7 0 100 2.5 2.7 2.1 -3.4 19.2 20.5 4.6 6.5 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 11.7 10.6 9.5 -0.6 44.3 44.6 9.3 11.3 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 11.4 12.0 10.8 0.7 57.8 57.1 9.0 11.1 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 11.7 11.4 10.3 0.0 50.4 50.2 9.3 11.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 9.0 9.5 7.5 -1.8 33.9 34.7 9.4 11.5 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 94 6 100 10.8 10.5 8.7 0.0 50.0 49.8 8.5 10.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 92 8 0 100 7.3 7.3 3.8 -3.4 18.0 19.3 9.3 11.1 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 94 6 100 11.0 11.2 9.7 0.3 52.7 52.4 8.8 10.8 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.5 8.7 6.6 -1.5 36.9 37.6 8.2 10.6 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 2.2 2.5 3.6 -3.2 21.9 23.2 4.1 6.1 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 11.0 11.3 10.6 0.5 54.9 54.5 8.7 10.7 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------