***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 13.0 13.7 12.1 1.0 60.6 58.0 10.4 12.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 13.0 13.7 12.2 1.0 61.3 58.6 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 13.5 13.8 12.1 0.8 58.4 56.0 10.9 12.9 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.2 9.6 0.4 53.8 51.8 2.1 4.7 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.3 9.9 0.4 53.7 51.9 10.6 12.9 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 8.6 10.8 7.0 -0.7 43.7 44.3 9.3 11.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 12.7 13.5 12.2 1.1 62.7 60.1 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -1.4 0.9 7.9 -0.3 46.8 46.4 -0.8 1.3 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.3 10.6 0.5 54.8 52.9 10.5 12.7 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.9 12.6 9.0 0.0 50.0 49.0 10.3 12.6 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.7 12.8 9.3 0.1 50.6 49.4 10.4 12.7 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 9.0 11.6 8.8 -0.2 48.1 47.5 9.5 11.8 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 10.1 12.4 8.1 -0.3 46.9 46.7 10.5 12.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.8 10.8 0.5 55.1 53.0 11.1 13.2 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.8 9.8 0.3 53.3 51.2 10.0 12.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 10.4 13.0 8.7 -0.2 48.4 47.8 10.9 13.2 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 12.1 12.9 12.1 1.1 62.9 60.1 9.9 11.6 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.2 8.4 -0.1 49.2 48.3 10.1 12.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.7 12.2 0.9 59.9 57.3 10.8 12.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.7 6.6 5.5 -0.7 43.5 43.6 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.6 11.4 0.7 56.9 54.7 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 13.2 13.9 12.2 1.0 61.1 58.3 10.9 12.7 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 13.7 14.0 12.1 0.8 58.1 55.7 11.2 13.1 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.3 10.5 0.4 54.0 52.2 10.8 12.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.5 10.4 0.8 59.1 56.5 10.4 12.4 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 9.4 11.7 7.8 -0.4 46.3 46.3 10.0 12.2 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 13.1 13.8 11.4 1.0 61.3 58.6 10.5 12.5 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 13.8 12.8 9.4 0.1 50.9 49.4 10.2 12.7 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.0 7.3 -0.2 48.0 47.3 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 13.0 13.6 12.2 0.9 60.8 58.2 10.5 12.4 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------