***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 13.9 13.9 12.5 0.3 54.8 53.9 12.5 13.6 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 14.0 14.2 12.6 0.4 57.5 56.1 12.8 13.7 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 14.4 14.2 12.5 0.1 51.8 51.5 13.0 14.1 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.5 9.9 -0.4 43.8 44.9 4.6 5.9 7.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.6 13.6 10.3 -0.5 42.3 43.9 13.0 14.1 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 11.3 11.5 7.6 -1.3 31.5 35.6 11.6 12.9 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 13.8 14.0 12.6 0.5 58.9 57.4 12.5 13.5 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 1.0 1.2 8.1 -1.3 31.8 35.5 1.3 2.5 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 14.3 13.6 11.0 -0.4 43.9 45.2 12.8 14.0 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.0 9.2 -1.0 35.9 38.8 12.8 13.9 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.4 13.0 9.6 -0.9 36.7 39.5 12.8 14.0 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 11.7 11.9 9.0 -1.2 32.8 36.6 11.9 13.2 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 12.7 12.9 8.6 -1.2 33.0 37.0 12.9 14.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.0 11.1 -0.4 44.3 45.5 13.2 14.3 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.2 10.6 -0.2 47.1 47.5 12.1 13.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.9 13.4 9.2 -1.0 35.1 38.4 13.2 14.4 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.4 12.5 0.5 59.2 57.6 12.0 12.9 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 12.3 12.6 8.5 -1.1 34.3 37.4 12.5 13.6 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 14.0 14.1 12.7 0.3 55.6 54.6 12.7 13.7 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 6.8 7.0 5.8 -1.5 29.0 33.0 7.4 8.6 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 14.4 14.0 11.9 -0.1 48.3 48.7 13.0 14.1 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 14.1 14.2 12.6 0.4 56.7 55.4 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 14.5 14.3 12.5 0.1 52.4 52.0 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.5 13.6 10.7 -0.6 42.1 43.6 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 14.0 13.8 11.0 0.2 52.4 52.0 12.6 13.6 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 12.1 12.2 8.2 -1.2 32.4 36.4 12.3 13.5 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 14.1 14.2 11.9 0.3 55.6 54.6 12.7 13.8 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.2 12.9 10.0 -0.6 41.0 42.8 12.3 13.6 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.1 7.4 7.5 -1.2 33.7 36.9 7.3 8.6 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 13.9 14.0 12.7 0.4 56.5 55.3 12.6 13.6 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------