***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 2.2 3.1 4.8 46.7 37.3 28.5 2.6 4.8 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 2.1 3.3 4.9 49.8 38.7 28.9 2.6 5.1 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.1 4.6 5.4 49.7 39.4 30.6 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 4.4 6.9 7.0 55.7 43.3 31.9 5.2 8.1 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.4 6.8 7.3 57.8 43.9 34.5 4.8 8.0 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.0 5.0 10.3 64.8 45.6 36.8 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 2.2 3.5 4.5 47.1 37.3 27.5 2.9 5.4 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 8.1 12.0 8.6 61.8 43.0 34.7 9.1 14.3 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 4.2 5.9 7.1 54.7 41.0 32.8 4.7 7.5 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 5.3 7.6 8.3 58.9 41.7 34.0 5.7 9.8 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 4.5 7.2 7.3 59.8 43.3 34.0 5.2 8.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 3.7 6.5 7.6 61.3 43.6 33.8 4.3 8.0 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 3.5 5.8 8.6 61.4 43.0 33.7 4.0 7.2 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 4.8 6.6 6.7 50.5 37.6 28.8 5.7 9.4 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 2.2 5.8 8.6 68.3 50.7 35.7 2.6 5.6 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 3.3 5.6 8.2 62.8 43.8 34.4 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 2.6 4.0 4.9 50.3 40.4 28.4 3.0 5.6 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 4.4 6.5 9.3 62.0 42.3 35.1 4.8 8.1 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 2.2 3.7 5.2 51.6 39.8 30.1 2.6 5.7 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.6 6.5 10.6 63.0 41.8 35.5 4.8 8.2 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.5 5.2 6.0 50.6 40.8 30.9 4.0 6.9 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 2.2 4.1 5.6 55.3 42.9 30.4 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 2.4 3.7 5.8 53.1 40.7 31.4 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 5.3 7.8 7.6 56.2 40.7 32.8 6.0 10.4 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.3 3.4 6.2 50.5 39.4 30.8 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.0 5.5 8.9 64.8 46.9 35.7 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 2.3 3.3 5.2 46.5 36.3 28.2 2.8 5.3 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 1.9 4.3 8.1 62.7 46.7 33.6 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 7.7 11.3 9.7 63.0 42.5 35.3 8.3 14.1 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 2.3 3.4 4.7 48.1 37.1 28.3 2.7 5.6 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------