***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.0 8.6 77.8 55.8 45.8 3.6 6.7 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.9 6.7 9.0 80.0 56.8 47.7 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.2 9.4 81.8 57.6 47.7 3.8 7.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.5 11.7 92.7 61.2 46.6 4.0 7.4 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.1 9.9 11.5 92.5 60.5 46.9 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.5 12.5 15.1 113.4 67.5 54.3 3.9 7.3 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.0 8.8 76.9 55.0 46.7 2.7 5.0 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.8 19.0 12.9 103.4 64.2 49.6 7.6 13.0 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.2 8.9 11.0 88.8 59.2 46.3 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.2 11.2 12.6 95.7 61.4 48.1 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.1 11.9 11.3 99.8 63.2 48.2 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.0 12.9 11.7 109.7 66.7 50.8 4.7 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.7 14.4 12.9 109.0 66.2 52.2 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.3 12.8 86.8 57.7 47.4 5.6 10.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.1 10.6 12.5 105.3 66.3 49.7 2.9 6.0 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.2 12.1 12.6 107.9 66.2 51.6 3.8 7.3 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.7 6.6 8.8 79.7 55.1 46.1 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.1 10.7 14.5 98.5 61.9 50.1 5.1 8.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.0 8.1 9.4 83.2 58.1 48.0 3.0 6.1 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.1 11.6 15.9 96.6 61.1 49.3 4.7 8.3 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.0 9.2 9.7 84.8 58.2 46.0 3.9 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.4 7.8 9.3 81.3 56.0 46.7 3.6 6.6 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.6 10.3 87.2 59.3 48.0 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.4 12.0 12.8 93.3 60.4 49.7 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.6 10.6 84.6 58.2 47.5 3.9 7.4 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.6 10.4 12.8 105.5 65.0 51.9 3.3 6.4 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.4 9.7 78.7 55.7 46.3 3.1 6.1 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.5 8.2 12.7 104.1 65.3 48.9 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.1 16.1 15.0 96.3 61.1 49.9 7.3 12.1 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.4 8.9 78.0 56.2 47.4 2.7 5.3 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------