***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.0 4.8 9.5 81.1 55.3 44.7 1.9 4.0 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.5 9.4 88.4 57.9 47.4 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.3 9.5 83.9 56.2 45.7 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.7 10.4 10.8 81.2 55.5 44.8 4.9 8.9 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.2 11.0 85.6 57.4 46.6 2.7 5.6 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.7 9.6 16.1 109.0 65.7 54.9 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.3 5.5 9.4 88.7 57.8 47.6 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.0 13.6 13.4 105.4 64.8 53.8 3.9 8.1 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.2 11.3 89.7 59.6 48.5 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.0 8.9 13.4 100.0 62.9 51.5 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.7 7.0 10.9 94.3 60.7 48.8 2.2 4.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.5 9.4 11.4 105.0 64.9 54.3 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.0 10.2 13.5 108.3 65.7 56.3 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 8.1 8.2 13.1 91.0 59.4 49.4 3.2 6.0 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.0 10.6 87.7 57.7 45.0 4.3 8.5 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.8 11.9 99.0 62.1 50.7 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.4 5.8 8.9 90.4 58.8 48.2 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.7 15.4 103.1 63.9 53.4 2.2 4.3 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.5 9.3 85.4 57.2 46.6 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.4 10.2 17.3 106.3 64.9 54.5 4.0 6.8 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.7 6.4 9.9 86.2 58.1 46.7 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.9 9.2 90.4 59.0 48.0 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.4 9.7 82.0 56.6 46.3 2.8 5.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.9 12.8 94.2 60.4 50.0 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.1 11.0 80.6 55.1 45.7 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 7.5 9.5 12.7 106.2 65.2 57.4 3.0 5.9 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.4 10.7 80.7 54.9 45.8 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.3 11.1 88.6 58.5 45.9 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.6 14.2 16.6 106.7 65.2 54.6 4.9 8.9 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.7 5.8 9.4 85.9 56.8 46.5 2.5 4.6 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------