***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 10.9 12.3 11.9 1.4 64.0 63.4 8.5 10.5 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 11.3 12.5 11.9 1.2 63.4 62.9 8.9 10.9 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 11.6 13.0 12.3 1.5 64.5 63.7 9.2 11.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 47 53 100 5.0 5.5 9.4 2.1 69.1 68.1 0.7 3.0 5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 11.6 13.1 10.6 1.6 65.5 64.4 9.1 11.2 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 10.1 11.3 8.5 1.5 65.4 63.6 7.8 9.7 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 10.9 12.0 11.6 1.1 62.5 62.0 8.6 10.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 1.1 2.3 8.5 1.4 64.0 62.7 -1.0 0.8 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 11.6 13.1 11.7 1.7 66.2 65.0 9.1 11.2 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 11.6 12.9 9.7 1.5 63.9 62.8 9.1 11.2 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 11.4 12.9 11.0 1.6 65.3 64.3 8.9 11.0 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 10.8 12.2 9.5 1.5 65.4 64.1 8.4 10.4 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 11.7 12.7 10.1 1.3 63.2 61.9 9.5 11.3 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 12.0 13.7 11.9 1.8 66.9 65.9 9.4 11.6 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 12.6 13.1 12.0 2.3 70.4 69.4 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 11.9 13.2 10.2 1.5 64.8 63.6 9.6 11.5 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 10.7 11.8 11.4 1.2 63.0 62.5 8.4 10.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 11.3 12.7 9.0 1.5 64.8 63.5 8.7 10.9 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 11.3 12.6 12.1 1.3 64.1 63.5 8.8 10.9 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 6.9 8.0 6.4 1.2 63.4 61.7 4.6 6.5 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 11.7 13.0 12.3 1.5 64.7 63.7 9.3 11.3 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 11.5 12.8 11.8 1.3 64.0 63.5 9.0 11.1 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 11.8 13.2 12.4 1.5 65.1 64.4 9.3 11.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 11.9 13.4 11.5 1.7 66.1 65.0 9.4 11.5 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 10.9 12.2 11.0 1.4 64.0 63.2 8.5 10.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 11.5 12.4 8.3 1.2 62.5 60.9 9.3 11.1 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 11.2 12.3 11.3 1.2 62.7 62.0 8.8 10.8 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 45 55 100 12.9 13.4 10.6 2.2 69.6 68.5 8.2 10.6 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 6.6 7.9 8.2 1.5 65.0 63.5 4.1 6.1 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 11.1 12.3 11.9 1.3 63.5 62.9 8.7 10.7 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------