***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 10.0 13.4 11.8 0.8 58.0 54.0 10.4 12.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 10.2 13.2 11.7 0.6 56.9 53.3 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 10.6 13.6 12.0 0.6 56.3 52.7 10.9 12.9 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 1.7 6.0 9.1 1.0 59.7 55.5 2.1 4.7 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 10.3 13.7 10.2 0.7 56.7 53.1 10.6 12.9 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.7 8.4 0.9 58.1 53.7 9.3 11.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 10.0 12.9 11.6 0.6 57.2 53.5 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.2 2.1 8.7 0.7 56.9 53.2 -0.8 1.3 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 13.6 13.4 11.1 0.6 56.2 52.8 10.5 12.7 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.6 13.4 9.6 0.7 56.2 52.6 10.3 12.6 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.7 13.5 10.5 0.7 56.2 52.7 10.4 12.7 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 9.1 12.8 9.6 0.7 56.8 53.3 9.5 11.8 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 10.1 13.6 9.7 0.7 56.3 53.1 10.5 12.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 10.7 13.8 11.0 0.5 55.1 51.5 11.1 13.2 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 9.6 13.9 11.0 1.1 61.4 57.0 10.0 12.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.6 14.1 9.9 0.7 56.5 53.1 10.9 13.2 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 9.5 12.3 11.4 0.6 57.2 53.4 9.9 11.6 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.2 13.2 9.1 0.8 57.0 52.9 10.1 12.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 10.3 13.3 11.8 0.6 56.4 52.8 10.8 12.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 8.4 8.6 6.8 1.0 59.2 54.2 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 10.4 13.6 11.7 0.6 56.3 52.7 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 10.5 13.4 11.5 0.6 56.5 52.7 10.9 12.7 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 10.8 13.7 11.9 0.5 55.6 52.1 11.2 13.1 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 10.4 13.6 10.9 0.6 55.7 52.1 10.8 12.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.0 13.4 10.5 0.8 58.1 54.1 10.4 12.4 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 9.4 13.2 8.7 0.8 57.7 54.1 10.0 12.2 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 10.1 13.4 11.2 0.7 58.0 53.9 10.5 12.5 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 9.7 14.1 9.9 1.1 60.1 55.8 10.2 12.7 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.6 8.3 8.4 0.9 58.2 53.5 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 10.1 13.1 11.7 0.6 56.9 53.2 10.5 12.4 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------