***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 15.1 14.3 12.4 -0.3 46.9 48.1 13.1 14.5 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 13.0 14.3 12.2 -0.3 46.6 47.5 13.2 14.5 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 13.5 14.7 12.6 -0.4 45.6 47.1 13.7 15.1 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.3 6.6 10.0 -0.6 44.5 46.7 5.5 7.0 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 13.5 14.7 10.7 -0.7 43.0 45.7 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 12.1 13.4 8.5 -1.0 40.8 44.4 12.5 14.3 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 14.9 14.2 12.3 -0.3 47.3 48.0 13.1 14.3 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 1.4 2.6 9.2 -0.7 43.2 45.9 1.7 3.3 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 13.3 14.5 11.1 -0.7 43.1 45.7 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 13.2 14.4 9.9 -0.8 43.0 45.6 13.5 15.1 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 13.2 14.4 10.5 -0.8 42.4 45.4 13.6 15.1 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 12.3 13.6 10.2 -0.8 42.6 45.7 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 13.2 14.5 9.4 -0.8 42.5 45.6 13.6 15.2 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 13.5 14.8 11.1 -0.6 44.3 45.9 13.9 15.3 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.2 10.8 -0.5 45.0 47.3 13.3 14.6 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 13.6 14.9 10.0 -0.8 42.4 45.5 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.3 12.1 -0.3 46.7 47.3 12.3 13.5 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 12.6 14.2 9.7 -0.6 44.6 46.6 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 13.2 14.4 12.4 -0.4 46.1 47.1 13.4 14.7 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.3 9.2 7.2 -0.3 47.1 47.9 7.8 9.4 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 13.4 14.7 11.9 -0.6 44.3 46.4 13.7 15.1 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 13.0 14.2 12.1 -0.4 45.9 46.6 13.2 14.5 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 13.5 14.7 12.5 -0.5 45.4 46.6 13.7 15.0 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 13.2 14.6 11.0 -0.6 44.2 46.2 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 13.3 14.5 10.8 -0.4 46.1 47.6 13.5 14.8 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 12.7 14.1 9.3 -0.6 43.6 46.3 13.1 14.7 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 13.3 14.6 11.8 -0.3 47.4 48.4 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 13.1 14.4 10.2 -0.6 43.8 46.4 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.4 9.2 8.8 -0.5 45.5 47.1 7.9 9.6 11.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 13.0 14.2 12.3 -0.3 46.6 47.6 13.2 14.5 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------