***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 15.2 16.9 13.6 0.0 49.7 49.4 15.5 16.9 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.0 13.5 0.1 50.9 50.4 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 15.4 17.1 13.9 0.0 49.4 49.0 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 6.9 8.9 11.2 -0.2 47.7 48.0 7.4 9.1 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 15.2 17.0 12.0 -0.2 47.2 47.3 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 13.6 15.6 10.0 -0.2 47.6 47.6 14.2 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.8 13.4 0.1 50.8 50.4 15.6 16.8 17.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 2.8 4.4 10.5 -0.2 47.7 47.5 3.2 4.6 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 14.8 16.7 12.4 -0.2 47.6 47.7 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 14.9 16.7 11.3 -0.2 47.7 47.6 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 15.0 16.7 11.8 -0.3 46.6 46.8 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 14.0 15.8 11.5 -0.3 47.1 47.3 14.4 16.0 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 15.1 16.9 10.7 -0.1 48.4 48.6 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 15.3 17.1 12.5 0.0 50.2 49.4 15.7 17.1 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 14.6 16.2 12.0 -0.2 47.8 48.4 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 15.2 17.1 11.3 -0.2 47.4 47.5 15.7 17.4 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.2 13.3 0.1 51.3 50.6 15.0 16.1 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 14.7 16.6 11.0 0.0 50.0 49.1 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.4 16.9 13.7 0.1 50.9 50.2 15.5 16.8 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.5 8.4 0.3 53.3 51.3 9.6 11.2 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 15.2 17.0 13.2 -0.2 48.2 48.1 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.0 13.4 0.1 51.8 50.8 15.6 16.8 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 17.8 17.2 13.9 0.0 50.5 49.7 15.7 17.2 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 15.1 17.0 12.4 -0.1 49.3 48.7 15.6 17.1 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 15.2 16.7 12.0 -0.1 48.9 48.9 15.5 16.8 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 14.1 16.1 10.7 0.0 50.0 49.9 14.5 16.1 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 17.7 17.2 12.9 0.0 50.1 49.8 15.8 17.1 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 14.3 16.2 11.5 -0.2 47.3 47.7 14.8 16.4 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.4 11.4 10.2 0.1 51.3 50.1 9.7 11.3 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 17.4 16.9 13.5 0.0 50.6 50.1 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------