***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.0 12.4 0.5 57.0 54.7 12.5 13.6 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.1 12.3 0.4 56.5 54.4 12.8 13.7 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.5 12.7 0.4 56.0 53.8 13.0 14.1 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.6 9.9 0.6 58.3 55.9 4.6 5.9 7.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.5 10.9 0.3 54.8 52.9 13.0 14.1 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.2 8.8 0.3 54.3 52.7 11.6 12.9 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.8 12.2 0.4 56.5 54.4 12.5 13.5 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 1.1 2.8 9.2 0.3 54.3 52.6 1.3 2.5 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.3 11.6 0.3 55.0 53.1 12.8 14.0 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.2 10.1 0.3 54.1 52.4 12.8 13.9 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.2 11.0 0.3 54.2 52.6 12.8 14.0 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 11.7 13.5 10.2 0.3 54.5 52.8 11.9 13.2 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.4 10.0 0.3 53.8 52.2 12.9 14.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.7 11.6 0.4 56.2 53.8 13.2 14.3 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 13.8 14.1 11.5 0.7 59.9 57.5 12.1 13.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 15.0 14.7 10.3 0.3 54.3 52.6 13.2 14.4 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.2 12.0 0.4 56.6 54.5 12.0 12.9 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.0 9.7 0.4 55.9 53.5 12.5 13.6 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.1 12.5 0.4 56.4 54.2 12.7 13.7 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.2 9.2 7.2 0.5 58.0 54.7 7.4 8.6 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.4 12.3 0.3 55.2 53.1 13.0 14.1 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.2 12.2 0.4 56.6 54.4 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.5 12.7 0.4 56.2 53.9 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.5 11.5 0.4 55.7 53.5 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.0 11.1 0.4 56.5 54.3 12.6 13.6 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.9 9.2 0.3 54.9 52.9 12.3 13.5 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.2 11.8 0.4 56.6 54.4 12.7 13.8 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.3 10.5 0.6 58.4 56.1 12.3 13.6 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.1 9.1 8.9 0.5 57.0 54.2 7.3 8.6 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.0 12.4 0.4 56.5 54.3 12.6 13.6 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------